2023-05-08-亚开行-亚洲及太平洋地区主权债务脆弱性（英）_64页_1mb

Sovereign Debt Vulnerabilities in Asia and the Pacific

This working paper analyzes evolving debt challenges in Asia and the Pacific. A key finding is that debt vulnerabilities are increasing across much of the region, driven by three global crises and compounded by factors like fiscal pressures, rollover risks, and external financing needs.

Key findings:

• Public and external debt burdens are rising, with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan, and the Lao PDR particularly vulnerable.
• Rising interest rates and currency depreciation exacerbate debt service pressures.
• External financing gaps are substantial in high-risk countries, with Sri Lanka in negotiations for debt restructuring.
• Heat maps highlight vulnerabilities based on debt ratios, liquidity, and external balance indicators.
• Near-term stress ratings using multivariate logit models identify high-risk countries (e.g., Pakistan, Sri Lanka) based on crisis probability.

Recommendations include:

• Strengthening fiscal management and transparency
• Improving debt data collection and creditor coordination
• Enhancing official development assistance mechanisms
• Exploring sovereign debt restructuring frameworks

The report concludes with a call for regional cooperation and structural reforms to address long-term debt sustainability challenges amid a challenging global economic environment.