20171228-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_224kb

EM Strategy Daily Summary - 28 December 2017

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily emerging markets (EM) strategy report from BNP Paribas, highlighting key market developments, central bank actions, and upcoming economic data releases. It also includes legal and regulatory disclosures relevant to the distribution of the report in various jurisdictions.

Key Market Developments

• FX&IR CEEMEA Strategy:

  • The document is authored by BNP Paribas London Branch, specifically Sai Ulluri.
  • The central bank of Egypt (CBE) is expected to hold its final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the year.
  • No rate cut is anticipated at this meeting, but gradual disinflation may lead to a rate cut in the first half of 2018.
  • The USD has weakened, leading to a broad rally in Asian FX, with the TWD up 0.60% against the dollar.
  • The EURCZK rose above 25.9 last week due to domestic lenders adjusting balance sheets, but has since retreated to 25.6 levels.

• Asia FX Trends:

  • Asian currencies have been rallying in line with the weaker USD.
  • The TWD has shown the strongest gains among Asian currencies.

• Latam FX & Data:

  • In Latin America, the focus is on Brazil's December inflation data and Mexico's central bank meeting minutes.
  • The RUB has been resilient despite FX purchases by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank's dovish stance, supported by higher oil prices.

• Asia Data:

  • South Korea's headline CPI is expected to rise modestly to 1.4% y/y in December from 1.3% in November.

Upcoming Data Releases

• Russia: December manufacturing PMI data is expected to be published.
• Brazil: December inflation data will be released.
• Mexico: Central bank meeting minutes will be published.
• South Korea: Headline CPI data for December is anticipated.

Strategy Contacts

The following are key contacts for the EM strategy team:

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• It is not intended to be relied upon as an independent analysis.
• It does not constitute an offer to sell or issue any financial instruments.
• BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its role in investment banking and trading activities.
• The document may include back-tested performance data, which is for illustrative purposes only.
• The information is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• Recipients are advised to consult independent financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
• The document is subject to change and may be discontinued at any time.
• It is not a prospectus and does not provide investment, tax, or legal advice.
• Certain securities discussed may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain investors.

Jurisdictional Notes

• UK: The document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, authorized by the ECB, ACPR, and PRA.
• France: The report is distributed by BNP Paribas SA and BNP Paribas Arbitrage, supervised by ECB and ACPR.
• Germany: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, subject to limited regulation by BaFin.
• Belgium: Distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and FSMA.
• Ireland: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A., Dublin Branch, regulated in France.
• Italy: Distributed by BNP Paribas Italian Branch, subject to limited regulation by Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
• Netherlands: Distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV, Netherlands Branch, subject to limited regulation by AFM and De Nederlandsche Bank.
• Portugal: Distributed by BNP Paribas - Sucursal em Portugal, subject to limited regulation by Banco de Portugal and CMVM.
• Spain: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A., S.E., subject to limited regulation by Bank of Spain.
• Switzerland: Intended for Qualified Investors only, distributed by BNP Paribas (Suisse) SA, registered with FINMA.
• Canada: The document is not a prospectus and is not intended to be investment advice.

Additional Notes

• The document includes disclaimers about the use of indicative prices and the potential for conflicts of interest.
• BNP Paribas may engage in transactions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in the report.
• Information is provided on a strictly confidential basis and may not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.