2021-12-15-牛津经济研究院-Denmark_Solid_growth_expected_despite_emergence_of_Omicron_variant_1页_312kb

GDP growth forecast for 2022 revised downward to 3.1% from 3.3% due to Omicron variant concerns and downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures. Economic activity is expected to increase from Q2 2022 as supply chain issues ease and the vaccine booster program contains the pandemic.

Denmark is less adversely affected than other European economies but faces risks from weaker external demand and consumer uncertainty. Stability stems from high vaccination rates and a strong government pandemic response, minimizing economic damage.

Labour shortages persist, with the unemployment rate expected to average 3.4% in 2022, lower than pre-pandemic levels. This supports robust earnings growth, which should outpace inflation next year.

Inflation is forecast at 1.6% for 2022, declining to around 0.4% by year-end due to base effects from normalizing energy prices and reduced input costs. Despite starting at about 2.4%, inflation is expected to fall significantly.

Overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, with Denmark's economic performance buoyed by policy effectiveness and structural strengths, though vulnerabilities exist from global demand and evolving pandemic scenarios.