2022-01-17-牛津经济研究院-Sweden_2022_GDP_growth_forecast_remains_as_expected_despite_Omicron_1页_119kb

Sweden Economic Forecast Summary (January 14, 2022)

Economic Growth Forecast: Maintained at 3.2% for 2022, driven by mild Omicron wave impact. Q4 GDP growth expected around 1%, potentially slightly higher than forecast, supported by robust private consumption and service sector output. Contact: Daniel Kral, dkral@oxfordeconomics.com.

Key Highlights from GDP Data: Private consumption and GDP showed positive momentum in 2021-2022, with concerns over formal restrictions minimal but voluntary behavior changes affecting close-contact services.

Labor Market: Job recovery steady, unemployment rate stable at 7.2% in December. High hiring intentions signal further improvement, but sector-specific shortages indicate skills mismatches.

Inflation: Headline CPI inflation jumped to 3.9% in December (up from 3.3%), led by electricity price increases, core inflation rose to 1.7%. 2022 forecast kept at 2.2%, with headline inflation expected below 2% by H2.

Fiscal Policy: Support will lessen in 2022, potentially influenced by the September general election. Government budget deficit shows improvement, but spending reductions are anticipated.

Monetary Policy: Riksbank remains accommodative; balance sheet shrinking likely due to strong recovery and higher inflation. Policy rate expected to stay at zero until at least end-2023.

Additional Metrics Trends: GDP growth has been volatile since 2018; inflation averaged 2.2% for 2022 projection; exchange rates show fluctuations against US dollar and euro.