2021-09-16-牛津经济研究院-Denmark_Strong_consumer_spending_should_power_the_recovery_1页_108kb

Summary of Denmark Economic Forecast

• GDP Growth: Updated forecast for 2021 GDP growth raised to 3.4%, supported by strong wage growth and unwinding of excess savings. Consumer demand is a key driver, but private investment is offset by industrial weakness from global supply-chain bottlenecks and weak tourism. Economic contribution from external position may shift to 2022.

• Inflation: August 2021 inflation reached 1.8%, a 9-year high, primarily due to energy prices. Forecasters expect 1.5% inflation in 2021, with potential for higher rates later in the year due to persistent energy costs and production headwinds.

• Employment: Unemployment rate remains steady at 3.8%. A tight labor market bolsters consumer demand and wage growth, but labor shortages exacerbate supply problems for businesses. Recent data shows an increase in shortages reported by manufacturing firms and a strong recovery in domestic demand outweighing supply capacity.

• Economic Forecast Overview: The outlook is largely positive in the short term despite risks. Forecasts for indicators like GDP, inflation, and industrial production show average growth or stabilization in the coming years.