GSMA-2019年俄罗斯与独联体移动经济报告（英文）40页_1mb

The Mobile Economy: Russia & CIS - 2019 Summary

Core Content Overview

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the mobile market in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, with a particular focus on Russia. It outlines key trends in subscriber growth, technology adoption, revenue forecasts, and the impact of mobile on economic growth and innovation.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Market Penetration and Subscriber Growth

• Unique Mobile Subscribers: By the end of 2018, the CIS had 235 million unique mobile subscribers, with Russia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan accounting for 80% of the total.
• Penetration Rate: The region has a high penetration rate of 81%, though it varies significantly by country, from 60% in Turkmenistan to nearly 90% in Russia.
• Subscriber Growth Forecast: Unique subscribers are projected to reach 244 million by 2025, representing only a marginal increase in market penetration.
• SIM Connections: Total SIM connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) were 420 million in 2018 and are expected to reach 431 million by 2025.

2. Technology Migration

• 4G Adoption: 4G is expected to overtake 2G as the dominant mobile technology in the CIS by 2021. By 2025, 4G will account for over two-thirds of total connections.
• 5G Development: The first 5G launches are expected to begin in 2020, with Russia and Belarus leading the way. By 2025, the CIS will have around 54 million 5G connections, representing 13% of total connections.
• 5G Rollout: 5G will primarily focus on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) to improve network capacity and throughput. The majority of 5G launches are expected to occur in 2020, with more than 70% of capital expenditure (capex) allocated to 5G by 2025.

3. Data Demand and Consumer Engagement

• Smartphone Penetration: Smartphones account for 57% of connections in the CIS, compared to 73% in Europe and 83% in North America. This is influenced by affordability and the prevalence of prepaid markets.
• Data Traffic Growth: Mobile data traffic in the CIS is expected to grow six-fold between 2017 and 2022, driven by increased consumer engagement with mobile services.
• Consumer Use Cases: Consumers in the CIS are increasingly using mobile services for internet-based messaging, social media, entertainment (especially video), e-commerce, and digitally delivered services such as healthcare and education.

4. Revenue Outlook and Capex Trends

• Revenue Stability: Mobile revenue in the CIS is forecast to remain largely stable between 2019 and 2025, but there are market-level differences. Russia is expected to see modest growth, while other markets may experience declines.
• Capex Investment: Operators are forecast to invest $39 billion in capex between 2019 and 2025, with more than 70% allocated to 5G. This will increase capital intensity and stretch financial resources.

5. Economic and Employment Impact

• Economic Contribution: In 2018, the mobile ecosystem contributed $101 billion to the CIS economy, representing 4.7% of GDP. This is expected to rise to $122 billion by 2023, or 5.1% of GDP.
• Employment: The mobile industry supported 620,000 jobs in 2018, with 270,000 direct and 350,000 indirect. Mobile also contributes to public funding through general taxation, raising $12 billion in 2018.

6. Policies and Regulatory Environment

• 5G Spectrum and Regulation: Policymakers are encouraged to support the rollout of 5G as a driver of socioeconomic growth and industry transformation. Regulatory frameworks should be conducive to investment.
• Yarovaya Law: The Yarovaya law, which came into effect in July 2018, requires Russian operators to store voice, SMS, and data traffic records for up to six months, leading to increased capex for secure storage solutions.

7. Innovation and IoT Growth

• IoT Opportunities: The mobile ecosystem is a key enabler of IoT growth, with industrial IoT expected to account for 48% of total IoT connections by 2025. This is driven by NB-IoT deployments.
• IoT Revenue: IoT revenue in the CIS is projected to grow at a CAGR of 22% between 2018 and 2025, reaching nearly $26 billion by 2025.
• Smart Cities and Utilities: The CIS is exploring smart city and smart utility solutions, with projects such as Smart Moscow 2030, and the deployment of smart meters in various countries.

Summary of Key Trends

• Subscriber Growth: Modest growth is expected as the market becomes more saturated, with Uzbekistan being a major growth driver.
• Technology Transition: The shift to 4G is accelerating, and 5G is on the horizon, though adoption will be slow.
• Data Demand: Consumers are increasingly using mobile services for a wide range of digital activities, leading to a surge in data demand.
• Revenue and Capex: While revenue is expected to remain stable, capex is set to increase significantly, especially for 5G.
• Economic Impact: The mobile industry is a major contributor to GDP and employment, with IoT set to play a significant role in future growth.

Conclusion

The CIS region is experiencing a transition from traditional mobile services to more data-intensive and innovative applications. Despite high market penetration, future growth is expected to be modest, with the focus shifting towards 4G and the gradual rollout of 5G. The mobile industry's economic and employment impact is substantial, and its role in enabling IoT and smart city initiatives will be critical for long-term growth and transformation.