2021年俄罗斯和独联体移动经济报告（英）-46页_2mb

The Mobile Economy: Russia & CIS 2021 Summary

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of the mobile economy in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region in 2021, focusing on market trends, operator strategies, and the economic and social impact of the mobile industry.

Main Points

1. The Mobile Market in Numbers

• Subscriber Growth: By the end of 2020, the CIS region had 238 million unique mobile subscribers, with Russia and Ukraine accounting for over 70% of the total.
• Market Penetration: Mobile penetration in the CIS region was high, with over 80% of the population having access to mobile services. However, there is still potential for growth in underpenetrated markets such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
• Smartphone Adoption: Smartphone penetration is expected to surpass 85% in six CIS markets by 2025, driven by the availability of lower-cost handsets and increasing mobile internet usage.
• 4G Dominance: 4G remains the dominant mobile technology, with an expected 66% penetration rate by 2024. 5G is still in early stages, with only Uzbekistan reaching the commercialisation stage as of 2021.

2. Key Trends Shaping the Digital Landscape

• 5G Development: 5G is on the horizon in the CIS region, but commercial adoption is expected to be slower compared to other global regions. Initial focus is on enterprise use cases, with consumer 5G expected to reach 30 million connections by 2025.
• IoT Growth: IoT connections are forecasted to grow by 1.7 times between 2020 and 2025, with LTE-M and NB-IoT expected to play a significant role in the near term.
• Telco of the Future: Operators are diversifying their revenue streams beyond traditional connectivity services, entering markets such as financial services, media, and entertainment.
• Network Infrastructure: Investments in network infrastructure are critical, with a focus on capital efficiency and future-proofing networks for 5G and IoT.

3. Mobile's Economic and Social Impact

• GDP Contribution: In 2020, the mobile industry contributed 7% to the CIS region's GDP, amounting to nearly $143 billion in economic value added. By 2025, this contribution is expected to rise to $160 billion.
• Employment: The mobile ecosystem supports approximately 740,000 jobs, with direct employment at 405,000 and indirect employment at 330,000.
• Public Funding: Mobile operators contribute around $13 billion to public funding through taxes, with this amount expected to grow to $160 billion by 2025.
• Digital Inclusion: Mobile networks are playing a crucial role in bridging the digital divide and promoting digital inclusion, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

4. Policies for Digital Advancement

• Spectrum Policy: Effective spectrum management is essential for the rollout of 5G and the expansion of 4G networks. Regulatory reforms are needed to support faster and more efficient network deployment.
• Network Build-Outs: Governments and regulators should facilitate fast and efficient network build-outs to ensure connectivity and support digital transformation.
• Taxation Strategy: A balanced taxation approach that supports both tax revenue generation and operator investment is necessary for sustainable growth.
• Fiscal and Regulatory Reforms: Policymakers should consider revising outdated rules to enable cost-efficient 5G deployments and foster innovation in the mobile sector.

Key Insights

• The CIS region is experiencing a digital transformation, with mobile technology playing a vital role in both economic and social development.
• Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, the mobile industry has shown resilience and continues to support connectivity and digital inclusion.
• 5G is expected to become a significant part of the mobile ecosystem, but its adoption is likely to be slower compared to other regions due to regulatory and infrastructure constraints.
• Operator strategies are shifting towards diversification, with a focus on financial services, media, and enterprise solutions to drive revenue growth.

Conclusion

The mobile economy in the CIS region is evolving, driven by technological advancements, policy reforms, and operator strategies. While 4G remains the dominant technology, the transition to 5G and the expansion of IoT and enterprise services are shaping the future of the industry. The region is well-positioned to benefit from these changes, provided that supportive policies and investments are implemented to ensure sustainable growth and development.