GSMA-2019年全球移动经济报告（英文）-2019.3-56页_3mb

The Mobile Economy Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the global mobile economy in 2019, highlighting key trends, growth projections, and the role of mobile in economic and social development. It outlines the importance of the GSMA and its Intelligence division in offering data, analysis, and forecasts for the mobile industry.

Main Points

1. The Mobile Market in Numbers

• Global Mobile Subscribers: By the end of 2018, 5.1 billion people were mobile subscribers, representing 67% of the global population. By 2025, this is expected to grow to 5.8 billion (71% of the population), with an average annual growth rate of 1.9%.
• New Subscribers by Region: Half of the 710 million new subscribers will come from the Asia Pacific region, and just under a quarter from Sub-Saharan Africa.
• 4G Dominance: 4G overtook 2G in 2018, with 3.4 billion connections. By 2023, 4G will account for 60% of total mobile connections.
• 5G Launches: 5G commercial launches began in 2018 in the US and South Korea. By the end of 2019, 16 more major countries will have launched 5G networks. The US, East Asia, and Europe are expected to lead in 5G adoption.
• Smartphone Growth: By 2025, smartphones will account for 79% of all mobile connections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, smartphone connections are projected to more than double.

2. Mobile's Contribution to Economic Growth and Social Impact

• Economic Value: In 2018, mobile technologies and services contributed $3.9 trillion to the global economy, which is 4.6% of GDP. This is expected to grow to $4.8 trillion (4.8% of GDP) by 2023.
• Job Creation: The mobile ecosystem directly supports 14 million jobs and indirectly supports 17 million jobs, totaling over 31 million jobs globally.
• Public Funding: Mobile operators contributed over $510 billion to public funding in 2018 through general taxation.
• 5G Economic Impact: Over the next 15 years, 5G technologies are projected to contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy.

3. Key Trends Shaping the Mobile Industry

• 5G and IoT: The 5G era is here, and the IoT market is expected to grow to 25 billion connections and $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2025.
• Content Expansion: Operators are expanding into content through vertical integration, partnerships with OTT services, and creating their own content.
• Artificial Intelligence: AI is transforming telcos by enabling autonomous networks, improving customer experience, and supporting applications such as chatbots and network optimization.
• Device Evolution: The third wave of devices is focused on AI and immersive entertainment, with smartphones remaining the primary internet access point.
• Connectivity and Development: The mobile internet penetration rate is expected to rise to 60% by 2025, with a significant impact on the UN's Sustainable Development Goals.

4. Policies for Digital Advancement

• Regulatory Frameworks: Governments need to reform outdated regulations to support the digital economy.
• Spectrum Allocation: Sufficient spectrum allocation is crucial for 5G success, particularly in mid-range and mmWave bands.
• Infrastructure Development: Continued investment in infrastructure is needed to close the coverage and usage gaps.
• Affordability and Taxes: Reducing sector-specific taxes and improving affordability are key to increasing mobile internet adoption, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
• Consumer Readiness: Literacy levels and gender equality are important factors in mobile internet adoption, with significant disparities in low- and middle-income countries.

Key Information

• Global Revenue Outlook: The global mobile revenue outlook is positive, with an annual average growth rate of 1.4% between 2018 and 2025.
• Capex Projections: Mobile operators are expected to invest around $480 billion globally between 2018 and 2020, with capex increasing beyond $160 billion in 2020 as 5G deployments expand.
• Mobile Connectivity Index: The global score improved from 52 to 60 between 2014 and 2017, with improvements in infrastructure, affordability, consumer readiness, and content & services.
• Challenges: Despite growth, unique subscriber growth is slowing, and operators face financial pressures due to regulatory intervention and competition.

Conclusion

The mobile industry is evolving rapidly, with 5G, IoT, and AI playing pivotal roles in driving future growth. While the mobile market faces challenges, the long-term outlook remains positive, with mobile contributing significantly to economic growth and social development. Continued investment, supportive policies, and improvements in affordability and consumer readiness are essential for the industry's sustained growth and impact.