加拿大央行货币政策报告-2023年7月-28页_880kb

Inflation Control Strategy: Canada's monetary policy focuses on promoting economic well-being through low and stable inflation, achieved via a flexible inflation-targeting framework renewed in 2021 for five years. The primary objective is maintaining a 2% inflation target, measured by the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate, with a control range of 1% to 3%. The approach is symmetric, meaning the Bank is equally concerned about inflation above or below target, and flexible to address various economic conditions, including supporting maximum sustainable employment and tackling structurally low interest rates.

Inflation Monitoring and Communication: The Bank uses core inflation measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median to filter out transitory volatility and guides policy decisions based on forward-looking measures. It prioritizes clear and transparent communication, regularly publishing reports and explanations for policy actions, including how flexibility impacts employment outcomes.

Global Economic Outlook: Inflation continues to decline globally but remains elevated in core components, particularly services, driven by strong demand and tight labor markets. Several central banks have raised policy rates in response. Growth is slowing due to monetary tightening and China's slowdown, with concerns about more persistent inflation than expected, as evidenced by stubborn core inflation rates around 3.5%–4% since 2022.

Canadian Economic Outlook: CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in May 2023, showing progress, but the downward momentum is slowing due to excess demand. Growth is projected to moderate amid tightening monetary conditions, averaging about 1% in late 2023 and 2024 before picking up to 2.4% in 2025. Inflation is expected to return to the 2% target mid-2025, delayed by higher house prices and persistent core inflation.

Risks: Upside risks include more stubborn inflation if expectations remain elevated, potentially prolonging the departure from target. Downside risks involve weaker global demand or faster disinflation in goods prices, which could delay inflation's return. Overall, uncertainty surrounds the timeline due to factors like lingering excess demand and volatile price expectations.