2022-09-17-WTW-2022年电力市场回顾（英）_89页_13mb

报告摘要

WTW Power Market Review 2022 Summary

Introduction

The report explores four key challenges affecting the power industry: the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global inflation, the energy transition, and climate change. It highlights that while the insurance market is beginning to soften, challenges like rising BI values and ESG constraints persist.

Four Global Challenges

1. Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Energy Dependency: Europe relies heavily on Russian energy (24.4% of energy needs).
Market Impact: Europe faces energy shortages, forcing reliance on coal and renewables.
Valuation Issues: Property insurance values increased fourfold due to inflation and sanctions.

2. Global Inflation

Impact: Rising commodity prices amplify Business Interruption (BI) values.
Premium Adjustments: Rate increases are moderating but remain significant for riskier programs.

3. Energy Transition

CCUS/ Hydrogen: New technologies (Carbon Capture) require investment with uncertain risk/return profiles.
Market Dynamics: Transition risks create pricing challenges, with insurers applying stricter terms.

4. Climate Change

Insurance Appetite: Nat Cat losses drive premium increases, with insurers applying caps/policies.
Geopolitical Factors: Climate change exacerbates existing market pressures.

Risk Modelling & Physical Risks

Energy Transitions

CCUS Models: Methodology for assessing physical and transition risks.
Climate Scenarios: NGFS scenarios help model transition risks and Nat Cat physical risks.

Climate-Transition Analytics (CTA)

Tools: Bottom-up models address disorderly transitions.
Scenarios: Key scenarios include Net Zero 2050, Below 2°C, and Delayed Transition.

Property Valuations

Resetting Values

Evolving Dynamics: Increased inflation chains requires transparent value calculations.
Defensiveness: Insurers use Averages and stricter clauses to mitigate valuation risks.

展开完整摘要