2022-11-10-WTW-印度棉花价值链的自然气候风险和脆弱性评估（英）_145页_1mb

Summary of Physical Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment: India Analysis

This report, published by Willis Towers Watson and Forum for the Future in June 2021, provides a detailed assessment of physical climate risks to India's cotton value chain, which includes cotton cultivation and the cotton processing sector. The analysis was conducted for the Cotton 2040 initiative, aiming to address climate change impacts on cotton production, supply chains, and livelihoods.

Key Findings:

• Physical Climate Risks: The assessment identifies significant threats such as increasing frequency of heatwaves, extreme temperatures (above 40°C), droughts, floods, landslides, and wildfires. These hazards are expected to intensify by the 2040s, with models indicating a rise in climate-related events across India. For instance, northern districts like Gujarat's Rajkot and southern regions like Telangana's Khammam face heightened risks due to temperature extremes, water scarcity, and land degradation.

• Socio-economic Vulnerabilities: Deep-rooted issues such as gender pay gaps (e.g., women cotton farmers earning up to 63% less than men), high poverty levels (child poverty affects one-third of some districts), and limited access to banking services or technology exacerbate risks. These factors reduce adaptive capacity, particularly in rainfed agricultural areas and urban textile hubs, making communities and industries more susceptible to climate shocks.

• District-Specific Risks: The analysis focused on 13 Indian districts (e.g., in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Telangana) and used a climate risk score system. High-risk areas include north Gujarat for heat stress and water stress, while Telangana faces greater flood and landslide risks. Conversely, districts like Nagpur showed lower risks due to effective adaptive measures and lower exposure.

Recommendations for Adaptation:

• Agricultural Measures: Implement soil-water conservation techniques to combat land degradation, shift to climate-resilient cotton varieties (e.g., organic farming reducing dependency on water-intensive practices), and improve access to weather-based decision support systems. Projects like soil testing and training on sustainable farming can help farmers adapt.

• Policy and Sectoral Actions: Promote fair wages, support group farming for smallholders, and enhance infrastructure for irrigation and processing (e.g., zero liquid discharge systems in textile units). Adaptation policies, such as India's National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, should prioritize districts with high climate exposure.

• Systemic Changes: The report emphasizes that addressing climate risks requires systemic interventions, including equitable access to finance, technology, education, and banking services. Investment in early warning systems and social programs can build resilience across the value chain.

The Cotton 2040 initiative calls for collaborative action by stakeholders (e.g., governments, NGOs, industries) to develop targeted adaptation strategies, as climate change threatens not only cotton yields but also poverty reduction and social equity in India.