2015年-世界发展银行全球_Romania_Toward_a_Low_Carbon_and_Climate_Resilient_Economy___Marginal_Abatement_Cost_Curve_Analysis_6页_1mb

Romania: Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy Summary

What is a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC)?

The Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) is a tool used to evaluate emissions reduction technologies and communicate abatement policies efficiently. It visually represents the cost-effectiveness of various mitigation measures across different sectors, showing the amount of emissions that can be reduced (abatement potential) and the net marginal cost per unit of abatement (in Euro per ton of CO₂e).

• Purpose: To provide decision-makers with a clear, concise overview of the cost and benefit of different abatement measures.
• Key Features:
  • Each technology is characterized by its abatement potential and marginal cost.
  • The curve can be built at various levels: individual technologies, sectors, or groups of sectors.
  • The cost is calculated as net of benefits and is expressed in present value terms.

Methodology

The MACC analysis in the Romania Green Growth study is cross-sectoral, covering the period from 2015 to 2050, and is aligned with Romania's EU climate commitments (2030 Framework and Roadmap 2050).

• Sectors Included: Power supply, energy efficiency, transport, agriculture, and forestry.
• Excluded Sector: Urban sector (to avoid double-counting with transport and energy measures).
• Modeling Approaches:
  • Electricity Supply: System model TIMES/MARKAL.
  • Energy Efficiency: Bottom-up detailed engineering model.
  • Forestry, Agriculture, Transport: Bottom-up Excel-based models, with transport using data from comparator countries adjusted for Romania.

Key Findings

• Total Abatement Potential: 37.8 Mt CO₂e by 2050, a 23% reduction from the 2050 Baseline.

• Sector Contributions:

  • Electricity Supply: Largest abatement share (45% of total).
  • Energy Efficiency: Third largest abatement (30% of total), with mostly negative net marginal costs.
  • Agriculture: ~10% abatement, relatively cost-efficient.
  • Forestry: ~5% abatement, very low cost.
  • Transport: ~10% abatement, high cost but with significant local co-benefits.

• Cost Range:

  • Energy demand: €-178/tCO₂e (negative cost, i.e., cost-saving).
  • Energy supply: €16/tCO₂e.
  • Agriculture: €12/tCO₂e.
  • Forestry: €-0.1/tCO₂e (very low cost).
  • Transport: €154/tCO₂e (highest cost).

• Co-benefits in Transport:

  • Reduced pollution, lower traffic congestion, fewer accidents, and improved quality of life.
  • These co-benefits often justify the high cost of transport measures from an economic perspective.

Conclusions and Recommendations

• The MACC provides a clear and simple picture of the cost and benefit of green measures across sectors, aiding in decision-making.

• Prioritization:

  • Energy Efficiency: Should be prioritized due to low net cost and quick benefits.
  • Forestry: Should start early as it has low annual cost and benefits accumulate over time.
  • Energy Supply: Requires large upfront investments and complex political decisions, so MACC is just one element of the decision-making process.
  • Transport: Measures should be implemented where they can bring significant social co-benefits, such as urban congestion control.

• Overall Impact: The selected green actions will significantly contribute to reducing emissions and improving climate resilience in Romania.

• Source: Staff calculations and modeling, co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund through OPTA 2007-2013.

Romania: Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program (OPERA-CLIMA)

The MACC analysis is part of the broader OPERA-CLIMA program, which aims to support Romania's transition toward a low carbon and climate-resilient economy. The program emphasizes the integration of climate action with economic growth, using a combination of sectoral modeling and cost-benefit analysis to guide policy decisions.