2015年-世界发展银行全球_Romania_Toward_a_Low_Carbon_and_Climate_Resilient_Economy___Energy_Sector_Analysis_6页_1mb

Romania: Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy

Sector Overview

The energy sector in Romania is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for 58% of the country's total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF). This high share underscores its critical role in climate change mitigation efforts. Romania's energy intensity has decreased significantly since the 1990s, with a 240% reduction from 1989 levels, although it remains one of the highest in the EU.

The country's energy supply system is currently carbon-intensive, but the share of zero-carbon energy sources (nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal) has grown from 1.8% in 1990 to 13% in 2012. Renewable energy sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuel) now make up 16% of total energy supply, while natural gas has decreased from 46% to 31%. However, coal and oil still account for 46% and 40% of primary energy and electricity generation, respectively, indicating a need for further de-carbonization.

EU Mitigation Targets

Romania is bound by EU-wide climate policies, including:

• Europe 2020 Strategy: Targets a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Romania is allowed to increase emissions by 19% from the 2005 level.
• EU 2030 Framework: Aims for at least 40% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2030.
• EU Roadmap 2050: Seeks to reduce emissions by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050.

These targets are translated into specific national policies and will influence Romania's future energy strategy.

Methodology

The analysis used two models:

• Energy Service Demand Analysis (ESDA): To project energy demand across different sectors.
• TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-Frontier model): To estimate the most cost-effective energy supply mix that meets demand and emission reduction targets.

Three scenarios were considered:

• Baseline: Based on current EU 2020 targets.
• Green: Aligns with EU 2030 Framework.
• Super Green: Reflects the EU Roadmap 2050 objectives.

The analysis also included Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) to assess the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures.

Energy Efficiency and Emissions Reduction

Energy efficiency measures significantly reduce demand growth:

• Baseline: Energy demand increases by 33% from 2015 to 2050.
• Green and Super Green: Demand increases by 24% and 20%, respectively, due to energy efficiency improvements.

The most impactful efficiency measures are in electricity-using devices and processes, reducing the need for electricity generation by 20% and 11% in the Green and Super Green scenarios, respectively. These measures also cut heating energy demand by 10-14% compared to the Baseline.

Energy Supply Mix and Costs

• Baseline Scenario (2050): Fossil fuels continue to dominate, with 30% natural gas, 46% coal and oil, and 31% renewables.
• Green Scenario (2050): 37% renewables, 20% natural gas, and coal almost disappears.
• Super Green Scenario (2050): 46% renewables, 15% natural gas, and coal is nearly eliminated.

Total costs for energy supply and efficiency measures over 2015–2050:

• Baseline: €27.6 billion (0.8% of GDP)
• Green: €36.5 billion (1.1% of GDP)
• Super Green: €53.6 billion (1.7% of GDP)

Energy efficiency measures, though requiring upfront investment, save €29 billion and reduce energy supply costs by €19 billion over the period.

GHG Emissions Projections

• Baseline: Emissions decrease by 20% in 2030 and 36% in 2050 compared to 2005.
• Green: Emissions drop by 45% in 2030 and 72% in 2050.
• Super Green: Emissions fall by 92% in 2030 and 97% in 2050, representing the most aggressive mitigation path.

Key Conclusions and Recommendations

• Romania can meet EU 2030 emission targets at moderate costs through the Green scenario.
• The Super Green scenario is more ambitious and costly, requiring €54 billion (1.7% of GDP annually) to achieve 80–95% GHG reduction by 2050.
• Energy efficiency is a key enabler for cost-effective mitigation, especially in the short term.
• Romania must abandon new coal-based power generation and extend the life of existing coal plants to meet future targets.
• The energy sector has the potential to become an engine of economic growth, leveraging its diverse resources (hydro, renewables, natural gas, uranium).
• Energy reforms supported by the European Commission, IMF, and World Bank should continue, including liberalization of electricity and gas prices, restructuring of energy complexes, and corporate governance improvements.

Tools and Support

• The TIMES model and ESDA tool are available for future policy development.
• The OPERA-CLIMA program is a key initiative for climate change and low-carbon growth, with more information available at http://opera-clima.ro/en/.

Final Notes

While long-term planning is essential, near-term reforms are equally important for ensuring the success of climate strategies. Romania's path toward a low-carbon economy is complex but achievable with the right policies and investments.