2016年-世界发展银行全球_Romania_Toward_a_Low_Carbon_and_Climate_Resilient_Economy___Water_Sector_Analysis_6页_1mb

Romania: Toward Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy - Water Sector Analysis Summary

Sector Overview

Romania's water resources are moderate but sufficient with proper management. However, the country faces significant regional and inter-annual variations in water availability. With an average of 2,000 cubic meters per capita per year, Romania is just above the international water stress threshold of 1,700 m³ and significantly below the European average of 4,500 m³.

The water sector is under increasing pressure due to climate change, which is raising water demand while reducing availability. This imbalance is particularly acute in basins with lower water endowment, especially during the summer months. The dual challenge of decreasing water availability and increasing demand affects all end-use sectors, including households, industry, agriculture, the environment, and hydropower.

Key Challenges

• Water Availability and Demand Gap: Climate change is expected to increase the water demand-supply gap, especially in agriculture and industry.
• Irrigation Constraints: Inadequate irrigation infrastructure limits the ability to meet irrigation needs, which are becoming more critical due to climate change.
• Hydropower Vulnerability: Reduced river runoff during dry seasons negatively impacts hydropower generation, which is also affected by competing water demands.
• Environmental Impacts: Climate-induced changes in water quantity and quality pose environmental risks that require management.

Climate and Adaptation Models

The analysis used climate models (GCMs) and adaptation models to assess the impact of climate change on water availability and the effectiveness of green policies and investments.

Adaptation Models

Three models were employed:

• CLIRUN: Estimates streamflow runoff.
• AquaCrop: Assesses crop yield and irrigation demand.
• WEAP: Evaluates water storage, hydropower potential, and water availability.

These models compared outcomes under two green scenarios (Green and Super Green) against a Baseline scenario.

Policy Issues and Adaptation Measures

The analysis addressed four key policy issues:

1. Agricultural Adaptation: Farmers' possible responses to climate change and their impact on production and income.
2. Energy Production: Projected impacts on hydropower generation under climate and development scenarios.
3. Water Use Prioritization: Trade-offs between irrigation, hydropower, and municipal/industrial water use.
4. Financial Implications: Cost and revenue projections, and the net present value (NPV) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of green investments.

Promising Adaptation Measures

The following measures were identified as having the most positive impact:

• Rehabilitating irrigation infrastructure: Restores irrigation production in currently rainfed areas.
• Optimizing agronomic inputs: Including fertilizer application, improves productivity and has positive NPVs and BCRs across regions and crops.
• Adopting drought-tolerant crop varieties: Provides benefits in specific regions and crops, but is less universally effective.

Financial Projections

• Green Scenario: Requires €1.8 billion (0.05% of GDP) in investment, with a BCR of 1.8.
• Super Green Scenario: Requires €11.0 billion (0.32% of GDP), with a BCR of 1.9.

The Super Green scenario involves a broader set of investments and has a higher NPV due to its comprehensive approach. Most of the investment burden is concentrated between 2015 and 2030, with about 65% of the total investment made during this period.

Regional and Crop-Specific Impacts

• Rainfed Crops: Likely to experience yield declines due to climate change, especially in southern regions.
• Irrigated Crops: May benefit from irrigation, as climate change (particularly temperature increases) can enhance yields when water stress is mitigated.
• Southern Regions: Some crops may see yield drops of up to 35% without irrigation.

Investment Tools and Outcomes

A set of tools for water sector investment analysis was developed and transferred to local stakeholders, including the Ministry of Environment, ANAR, and INHGA. These tools can be used to further evaluate irrigation and other water and agriculture investment options, as well as multi-sectoral water use strategies.

The results of this assessment, along with future analyses using the tools, can support the evaluation and prioritization of various water and agriculture sector investments, contributing to long-term resilience and sustainability.

Conclusion

Climate change poses significant risks to Romania's water sector, particularly in agriculture, irrigation, and hydropower. However, targeted green growth investments can mitigate these risks and improve sectoral outcomes. The most promising investments include irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation, optimized fertilizer use, and drought-tolerant crop varieties, with the latter being regionally specific. Both Green and Super Green scenarios show positive financial returns, with the Super Green scenario offering greater benefits due to its broader scope. These findings support the implementation of climate-resilient policies to ensure sustainable water use and agricultural productivity in Romania.