2015年-世界发展银行全球_Romania_Toward_a_Low_Carbon_and_Climate_Resilient_Economy___Transport_Sector_Analysis_6页_1mb

Summary of Romania: Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the transport sector in Romania, focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends and the potential impact of green policies and investments on reducing these emissions. It outlines the current state of the transport sector, the reasons behind its emissions growth, and the recommended policy interventions to mitigate this trend.

Main Drivers of Emission Growth

• Increasing car ownership and usage: Rising incomes have led to more households owning cars and moving to the suburbs, contributing to urban sprawl.
• High-emission old vehicle fleet: Romania has a significant number of outdated vehicles with high emission intensity.
• Urban sprawl: This has increased the cost of public transportation and reduced its viability, leading to increased reliance on private vehicles.
• Freight sector motorization: Higher motorization rates have reduced the use of less emission-intensive rail transport.

Emissions Trends

• In 2013, the transport sector accounted for 13.0% of Romania's total emissions, significantly below the EU average of 25.3%.
• From 1990 to 2012, the transport sector's share of total emissions increased by 78% in Romania, compared to only 10% in the EU.
• Transport emissions are expected to grow in Romania, with projections of 34% increase under the Baseline scenario from 2015 to 2050.
• The Green package reduces this growth to 24%, and the Super Green package to 17%.

Policy Interventions and Scenarios

The analysis uses the Romania Transport Strategic Emission Prediction Tool (TRANSEPT), a bottom-up model with four modules: transport demand, vehicle stock, vehicle and driving efficiency, and fuel consumption.

Three scenarios were evaluated:

• Baseline: Based on the Romanian General Transport Master Plan and EU "Trends to 2050" model.
• Green: A set of measures with lower cost and moderate abatement potential.
• Super Green: A more ambitious set of measures aiming for maximum emission reduction.

Key Green Measures

• Speed restrictions: Reduces emissions by limiting vehicle speeds.
• Fuel tax increase: Encourages the use of more efficient vehicles.
• Efficient driving programs: Includes advertising campaigns and training for private and public transport users.
• Progressive new vehicle registration tax (Environmental Stamp): Promotes low-emission vehicles based on Euro standards, CO₂ emissions, and engine displacement.
• Urban congestion pricing and parking pricing: Discourages driving in urban areas and supports public transport use.
• Low emission zones: Restrict access to higher-emission vehicles in cities.
• Subsidies for efficient vehicles: Encourages the scrapping of high-polluting vehicles.

Abatement Potential

• Green scenario delivers 36.7 MtCO₂e of cumulative abatement.
• Super Green scenario delivers 68 MtCO₂e of cumulative abatement.
• The top four measures account for 73% of the total abatement in the Super Green scenario.

Cost Estimates

• Green scenario requires about €135 million in additional investments from 2015 to 2050.
• Super Green scenario requires approximately €1.7 billion in additional investments.
• Most of the costs are incurred in the first 15 years, with €60 million needed in the first five years for the Green scenario and €608 million for the Super Green scenario.

Co-Benefits of Green Measures

• Reduced local air pollution, congestion, noise, and road accidents.
• Improved public health and social equity.
• Enhanced safety and efficiency in urban transport systems.

Institutional Arrangements

• Collaboration between transport stakeholders (government ministries, rail sector, cities, municipalities, bus operators, parking management) is essential.
• Clear governance structures, contractual arrangements, and administrative capacity are needed to support the implementation of green policies.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The goal of green growth in the transport sector is to decouple emissions growth from economic growth.
• Policy and behavioral incentives (taxes, regulations, fees, pricing) are crucial to achieve this.
• A modal shift from road to rail or public transport can reduce emissions and improve urban mobility.
• The OPERA-CLIMA program, supported by the European Regional Development Fund, aims to promote low carbon and climate-resilient transport development in Romania.

For more information, visit the OPERA-CLIMA program webpage.