北大国际战略研究院-_ISSUE-92_-Sino-US-relations-under-the-COVID-19-Pandemic_16页_622kb

Sino-U.S. Relations under the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Summary

I. Changes in the U.S. China Policy

The U.S. China policy has undergone significant changes since 2017, especially under the Trump administration. Key developments include:

• Strategic Competition: The U.S. has increasingly viewed China as a "strategic competitor" and "revisionist state," aiming to reshape the international order.
• Trade War: Trump initiated trade frictions, which escalated into a trade war. Although a Phase-One agreement was signed in early 2020, it did not resolve underlying issues.
• Economic and Technological Decoupling: The U.S. has sought to reduce its reliance on Chinese goods and technologies, including medical supplies and 5G equipment.
• Political Pressure: The U.S. has intensified diplomatic and political pressure on China through actions such as blocking the nomination of China's representative to the World Intellectual Property Organization and supporting anti-China movements in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang.
• Uncertainty and Shifts: The pandemic disrupted Phase-Two negotiations, and Trump's inconsistent stance on China has led to further tensions. The U.S. also used the term "China virus," which fueled racial discrimination and negative sentiment.

II. China's Policy and Attitude towards the U.S.

China has adopted a more assertive stance in response to U.S. actions, particularly during the pandemic:

• Strong Opposition: China has firmly condemned U.S. stigmatization and misinformation regarding its pandemic response, calling it "doomed to fail."
• Tit-for-Tat Measures: China has taken retaliatory actions, such as revoking press cards of foreign journalists and restricting U.S. media operations in China.
• Reduced Tolerance: There is growing intolerance for U.S. anti-China rhetoric and actions, both within the government and civil society.
• Economic Independence: China emphasizes self-reliance in technology and manufacturing, aiming to reduce dependency on the U.S.
• Diplomatic Engagement: Despite tensions, China has maintained a diplomatic tone, calling for "coordination, cooperation, and stability" in Sino-U.S. relations.

III. Comprehensive Judgment of Sino-U.S. Relations

• Deepening Distrust: The relationship is marked by a significant decline in mutual trust and an increase in public sentiment of mutual disgust.
• Comprehensive Struggle: The U.S. has intensified pressure across multiple fields, including trade, technology, human rights, and regional security.
• Long-Term Trend: The current crisis is not sudden but an acceleration of long-term tensions, with both countries facing challenges in maintaining communication and cooperation.
• Risk of Confrontation: There is a growing possibility of full confrontation, potentially leading to a "Thucydides Trap," which could result in economic and technological decoupling.
• Avoiding a New Cold War: While a new Cold War is not inevitable, the risks are higher due to the deep integration of the two economies and the complexity of the current situation.

IV. International Situation and Other Countries' Attitudes

• Global Impact: The pandemic has exacerbated global economic instability and geopolitical fragmentation.
• Multilateral Engagement: Many countries prefer to remain neutral and avoid taking sides in the Sino-U.S. rivalry.
• China's Global Influence: China's economic contributions, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, have increased its global standing.
• U.S. Isolation: The U.S. has seen a decline in its global influence, particularly in Europe, due to the Trump administration's policies.
• No Bipolar Pattern: The world is not entering a bipolar pattern, and China is unlikely to form an international front against the U.S.

V. Summary

• Impact of Pandemic: The pandemic has significantly worsened Sino-U.S. relations, accelerating the decline in trust and cooperation.
• Irreversible Trends: Economic and technological decoupling is becoming an irreversible trend, with both countries increasingly focusing on their own interests.
• Political and Social Tensions: Racial discrimination, misinformation, and political pressure have intensified, leading to a more hostile environment.
• Uncertainty Ahead: The future of Sino-U.S. relations remains uncertain, with both Trump and Biden likely to continue or intensify the current policies.
• Global Implications: The relationship has broader implications for global stability, with many countries adopting a cautious and neutral stance.

This summary highlights the complex and deteriorating nature of Sino-U.S. relations in the context of the pandemic, emphasizing the strategic, economic, and political shifts that have taken place.