深度-UKRI-欧盟与英国2030（英文）-2021.6-59页_1mb

UK in a Changing Europe: EU-UK 2030 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of how EU member states and the European Commission have responded to Brexit, focusing on economic, political, and diplomatic implications. It explores the evolving relationship between the UK and the EU in the years following the 2016 referendum, emphasizing the concerns and priorities of various countries.

Main Viewpoints

• EU Unity and Stability: Member states consistently viewed the EU's unity, prosperity, and stability as their primary concern. They were more focused on preserving the EU's integrity than on the UK's future role.

• Economic Impact: Brexit had a significant economic impact on several countries, especially those with close trade ties to the UK. However, the EU remained the preferred partner for many, and the long-term effects are still being assessed.

• Citizens' Rights: Countries with substantial diasporas in the UK, such as France, Ireland, and Poland, prioritized the protection of citizens' rights in the negotiations. Once these rights were secured, public interest in Brexit waned.

• Security and Foreign Policy: While the UK was not a formal EU member, it played a key role in transatlantic and security cooperation. Member states are reassured that bilateral security ties can be maintained outside the EU framework, and many are open to working with the UK on this level.

• Political Shifts: Brexit has reinforced EU membership in several countries, particularly among those that had previously been Eurosceptic. The UK's departure has also led to shifts in power dynamics within the EU, with some member states feeling less influential without the UK.

Key Information

Economic Impact

• Austria: Trade with the UK dropped by 18.4% in 2020, double the European average. The UK is a key market for Austrian services, with a €2.6 billion surplus in 2018. Tourism and direct investments are also important.

• Denmark: Exports to the UK fell by 24% immediately after the transition period. Projections indicate a long-term decline of around 17%. The fishing and agricultural sectors were particularly affected.

• Czechia: The UK is the fifth-largest market for Czech services and a key export destination. The auto industry, which exports 150,000 cars to the UK annually, is highly dependent on EU and UK trade.

Political and Diplomatic Reactions

• EU Institutions: The European Commission and European Council were central to the Brexit negotiations, with the Commission being entrusted with managing the process. Member states preferred a unified approach to prevent the UK from exploiting divisions.

• Security and Defense: Countries like France, Germany, and Italy have expressed willingness to maintain bilateral security ties with the UK, despite the absence of a formal security framework in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).

• EU Membership Support: Brexit has strengthened support for EU membership in many member states. For example, support for EU membership in Denmark increased from 65% in 2014 to 78% in 2020.

Future Relationship with the UK

• Pragmatic Approach: Most member states have taken a pragmatic stance, focusing on maintaining stable and functional trade relations while avoiding over-entanglement in political issues.

• Lack of Strategic Planning: The long-term relationship between the UK and the EU remains underdeveloped, with limited strategic planning. The post-Brexit relationship has been overshadowed by the pandemic and other pressing issues.

• Role of the EU: The EU is seen as the solution to many challenges, not the problem. Member states are not eager to pursue a new model of UK-EU relations and prefer to work within the existing framework.

Country-Specific Insights

Austria

• Trade: Significant trade decline with the UK, particularly in services.
• Diaspora: Around 30,000 Austrians live in the UK, and 11,177 British citizens live in Austria.
• EU Position: Austria supported a unified EU approach, and its position in the EU has shifted towards the 'frugal four' (Denmark, Sweden, Netherlands, and Austria).

Czechia

• Economic Dependence: The Czech economy is heavily export-oriented, with the UK being a key market for services and automotive products.
• Political Consensus: Czech politics largely depoliticized Brexit, with a clear consensus on EU priorities.
• Low Profile: The Czech government has maintained a low profile in Brexit negotiations, focusing on supporting the EU.

Denmark

• Close Ties: Denmark and the UK were both EU members and had close economic and political ties.
• Single Market Priority: Denmark prioritized the preservation of the single market and rejected any special treatment for the UK.
• Diplomatic Adjustments: Denmark has had to adjust its diplomatic strategies and find new allies within the EU.

Conclusion

The Brexit process has not significantly impacted the EU's internal dynamics or its long-term vision, as member states remain focused on preserving unity and stability. While economic challenges have arisen, the EU is still viewed as the preferred partner for most countries. The future relationship with the UK is likely to remain pragmatic and focused on trade and security, rather than on a new political model. Brexit has also reinforced EU membership in many countries, particularly among those that had previously been Eurosceptic.