世界发展银行-Iran-Economic-Monitor,-Fall-2020---Weathering-the-Triple-Shock_44页_1mb

报告摘要

Iran Economic Monitor: Weathering the Triple-Shock

Core Content

The Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) Fall 2020 edition analyzes the Iranian economy's response to a triple shock of US sanctions, oil market collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The report highlights the impact of these shocks on economic activity, inflation, and welfare, with a special focus on poverty and inequality.

Main Points

Economic Performance

GDP contraction: Iran entered a third consecutive year of recession, with a -6.8% contraction in the 2019/20 Iranian calendar year due to the expiration of US sanctions waivers.
Non-oil growth: Non-oil GDP grew by 1.1% in 2019/20, driven by agriculture and manufacturing, aided by currency depreciation.
Q1 2020/21: GDP shrank by 2.8% (y-o-y), with the oil and services sectors most affected. Despite this, manufacturing showed a modest 1.5% growth.
Wider contraction: The GDP contraction in Q1 2020/21 was slower than most countries, partly due to pre-existing economic weakness and limited global integration.

Inflation and Currency Depreciation

Inflation surge: Inflation reached 30.6% in Apr-Nov 2020, climbing to 46.4% in November 2020, the highest in 16 months.
Currency depreciation: The rial depreciated by 43% against the dollar during Apr-Nov 2020, increasing the cost of imports and domestic production prices.
Price competitiveness: The depreciation improved price competitiveness in non-oil sectors, but increased living costs for lower income households.

Fiscal Policy and Public Sector

Fiscal deficit: The fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio more than doubled to 3.7% in 2019/20, due to halved oil revenues and reduced export proceeds.
Government response: To meet financing needs, the government relied heavily on bond issuance, asset sales, and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund.
Subsidies and labor costs: Subsidies and labor compensation dominated government expenditures in 2020/21 and beyond, increasing fiscal pressure.

Labor Market and Jobs

High gender gaps: Labor market gender gaps remain high, especially in non-tradable sectors.
Job creation: The marginalization of the private sector has limited job creation, particularly affecting youth and women.
Employment trends: The report notes the stagnation in employment and the underutilization of the country's human capital and natural resources.

Poverty and Inequality

Poverty rate: The national poverty rate at USD 5.5 PPP increased from 12.3% in 2018/19 to 13.8% in 2019/20.
Inequality: The Gini index rose to 35.6 in 2018/19, reflecting increasing inequality.
Welfare impact: High inflation and reduced real incomes have eroded the value of cash transfers, exacerbating poverty and inequality.
Vulnerable groups: The bottom half of the welfare distribution, especially rural populations and those in high-contact sectors, are disproportionately affected.

Social Protection Measures

New transfers: In response to the surge in cases, the government introduced new cash transfers and low-interest loans for the most vulnerable.
Inadequate targeting: These measures, while helpful, are insufficient due to lack of accurate targeting and fiscal constraints.

Key Information

Outlook and Risks

GDP contraction: Iran's GDP is projected to contract by 3.7% in 2020/21, with a slower recovery expected in 2021-2022.
Uncertainty: The outlook remains highly uncertain due to ongoing US sanctions and uncertain evolution of the pandemic.
Fiscal pressures: Lower revenue growth and higher financing costs are expected to increase fiscal deficits in the medium term.
Upward risks: A stronger oil market recovery and sanctions relief could lead to stronger growth.
Downward risks: Stricter lockdowns, limited vaccine access, and trade restrictions could worsen economic conditions.

Special Focus: Welfare Impacts

Microsimulation: Analysis shows that poverty could increase by up to 21 percentage points due to income loss and high inflation.
Targeting issues: Current social protection measures are not adequately targeted, increasing fiscal burden.
Need for reforms: The report emphasizes the urgency of deeper economic reforms and more targeted social protection to address structural challenges and welfare impacts.

Conclusion

The Iranian economy faces severe challenges due to the triple shock. Fiscal constraints, inflationary pressures, and limited economic integration have exacerbated poverty and inequality. The special focus on welfare impacts underscores the need for targeted social policies and structural reforms to ensure sustainable recovery. The economic outlook is uncertain, with risks from the pandemic and geopolitical tensions likely to delay recovery.

References

Data sources include the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), World Bank staff calculations, Johns Hopkins CSSE, and Coronavirus Government Response Tracker.
The report draws on microsimulation models and Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data to assess poverty and inequality trends.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Confirmed COVID-19 cases rose sharply since Sep-2020.
Figure 2: Policy response was initially less stringent than MENA average.
Figure 3: GDP contraction continued, albeit at a slower pace in Q1 2020/21.
Figure 4: Economic divergence from regional and income-group benchmarks.
Figure 5: Sanctions and pandemic hit oil and services sectors hardest.
Figure 6: Investment and consumption continued to decline.
Table 1: Gol proposed an expansionary budget for 2020/21.
Table 2: Selected economic and financial indicators for 2017/18–2022/23.
Table 3: Parameters by income type and sector.
Table 4: Social assistance response scenarios.

List of Boxes

Box 1: GDP growth under the pandemic, initial observations.
Box 2: Gol's social protection measures during 2020.
Box 3: Human Capital Index in Iran, highlighting education and health outcomes.

Abbreviations

Bbl: Barrel of oil
CAB: Current account balance
CBI: Central Bank of Iran
CPI: Consumer price index
ER: Exchange rate
FDI: Foreign direct investment
GDP: Gross domestic product
Gol: Government of Iran
HCI: Human Capital Index
HIES: Household Income and Expenditure Survey
IRR: Iranian Rial
MENA: Middle East and North Africa
PPP: Purchasing Power Parity
SCI: Statistical Centre of Iran
SME: Small and medium-sized enterprise
SOE: State-owned enterprise
TSE: Tehran Stock Exchange
UMC: Upper middle-income countries
USD: United States Dollar
WDI: World Development Indicators
y-o-y: Year-on-year

Summary of Key Trends

Economic stagnation: Iran has experienced a lost decade of growth, with GDP growth at -0.1% annually.
Triple shock: Sanctions, oil market collapse, and pandemic have deepened the recession.
Inflationary pressures: Inflation reached 46.4% in November 2020, with food and housing prices rising sharply.
Poverty increase: Poverty rates increased by 1.5 percentage points in 2018/19–2019/20.
Fiscal strain: Fiscal deficit-to-GDP rose to 3.7% in 2019/20, with debt and asset sales being key financing tools.
Social protection: Cash transfers and consumption loans were introduced, but targeting and fiscal capacity remain constraints.

Policy Recommendations

Deep economic reforms: Needed to address structural challenges and improve investment climate.
Targeted social protection: To mitigate welfare impacts of inflation and recession.
Fiscal sustainability: Requires better targeting and reforms to reduce reliance on debt.
Exchange rate stability: Needs more reserves and better access to foreign exchange.
Poverty reduction: Should be centered on vulnerable groups and improved data systems.