2008年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_PDR_Economic_Monitor_April_2008_44页_965kb

Lao PDR Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

Lao PDR's economic outlook remains favorable, with continued strong GDP growth and improving fiscal performance. However, rising inflation poses a risk, and structural reforms are ongoing but uneven in implementation.

Main Points

• Economic Growth:

  • GDP growth remained above 7% in 2007 and is projected to continue into 2008.
  • Non-resource sectors contributed over 5% to overall growth, while the resource sector contributed around 2.5%.
  • Growth was driven by investments in agriculture, manufacturing, and services, as well as FDI inflows from neighboring countries like China, Vietnam, and Thailand.

• Inflation:

  • Inflation fell to a historic low of 4.5% in 2007 but rose to 6.4% in February 2008 and further to 7.7% in March 2008.
  • Key drivers of inflation include high global oil prices, local food price fluctuations due to weather and bird flu, and rising non-food prices.
  • The government has tasked several agencies to control inflation, including the Bank of Lao PDR, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

• Exchange Rates and External Balance:

  • The kip appreciated by nearly 9% against the US$ from October 2007 to March 2008.
  • Reserves increased to nearly 5 months of non-resource imports in 2007 and are expected to rise further in 2008.
  • The current account deficit is projected to be nearly 19% of GDP in 2008, while the non-resource current account deficit is expected to remain around 7% of GDP.

• Government Finance:

  • Government revenue increased from 12.6% of GDP in 2005/06 to 14.1% in 2006/07.
  • About 20% of government revenue comes from the resource sector.
  • The overall budget deficit is expected to decline to 2.5% of GDP in FY2006/07, down from 3.7% in FY2005/06.

• External Debt:

  • External public debt as a percentage of GDP decreased to 64.7% in 2007 from 77.1% in 2006.
  • Despite this decline, debt levels remain elevated and are classified as "high risk of debt distress" by IDA.

Key Economic Indicators (2007)

Structural Reforms

• Public Financial Management (PFM):

  • The centralization of Treasury, Customs, and Tax Departments has started.
  • A new revenue sharing mechanism and fiscal transfer system are being developed.
  • The revised Chart of Accounts (COA) is expected to be implemented by FY2008/09.
  • An Audit Peer Review by the SAO of New Zealand was initiated in February 2008.

• State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs):

  • Reforms are ongoing, with a focus on improving efficiency and performance.
  • The government has been working on restructuring SOEs to align with broader economic goals.

• Financial Sector:

  • The financial sector has seen some improvements, including reductions in non-performing loans (NPLs) and enhanced supervision.
  • A new Commercial Banks Law was endorsed, and amendments to the Presidential Decree on Foreign Exchange and Precious Metals were adopted in 2007.

• Trade and Private Sector Development:

  • Legal frameworks are in place to support international trade and private sector activity.
  • The Enterprise Law was implemented, with the approval of the Negative List of Business Activities in November 2007.
  • Efforts have been made to streamline border agencies and improve trade facilitation.

• Poverty Reduction Strategy:

  • The National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy (NGPES) was finalized in 2004 and integrated into the 6th Five-Year National Socio Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for 2006-2010.
  • The NSEDP focuses on human development, competitiveness, social development, and good governance.
  • Annual progress reports have improved, linking targets and outcomes, and encouraging donor program aid.

Challenges and Constraints

• Structural weaknesses in the economy remain.
• Limited progress in expanding the growth base and diversifying economic activities.
• Inequalities in growth and social development across geographic areas and population groups.
• Insufficient natural resource management and associated revenue generation.

Summary of Progress

• The new Budget Law was enacted in February 2007.
• Primary education enrollment increased to 87% from 84.2% in 2005.
• Malaria death rate declined significantly, from 9 per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.4 per 100,000 in 2006.

Future Outlook

• The government aims to maintain rapid growth, reduce poverty, and meet MDGs by 2020.
• Continued structural reforms and improved PFM are critical for long-term economic stability.
• The risk of rising inflation needs to be managed carefully, especially as global commodity prices remain volatile.
• The external balance is strengthening, but could lead to inflationary pressures in the future.