世界发展银行-Morocco-Economic-Monitor,-July-2020_44页_3mb

报告摘要

Morocco Economic Monitor Summary (July 2020)

Core Content

The Morocco Economic Monitor provides an analysis of recent economic and policy developments, along with an outlook and challenges for the Moroccan economy, particularly in the context of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the country's macroeconomic performance, public finances, labor market, and external economic position, while emphasizing the need for adaptive policies to ensure a resilient and sustainable recovery.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic and Policy Developments

Economic Growth: Growth has been moderate but volatile, driven primarily by private demand. In 2019, it reached 2.5% due to a contraction in agriculture and a slight increase in non-agricultural sectors.
Prices and Inflation: Inflation remains low and stable, below 2% since 2008, despite more volatile food prices. The exchange rate is pegged to a basket of the Euro and US Dollar.
Labor Market: Job creation has slowed, and the labor market faces significant challenges, especially for youth, women, and educated workers. Informal employment is high, with only 17% of the economically active population having formal jobs.
Public Finance: The fiscal deficit widened in 2019, and further expansion is expected in 2020 and 2021 due to increased government spending on health, social protection, and pandemic response. The central government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 75.2% in 2020, up from 65% in 2019.
External Position: The current account deficit narrowed in 2019 due to increased exports and reduced energy imports, but is expected to widen significantly in 2020 to 8.4% of GDP due to the pandemic's impact on tourism and exports.

2. Outlook and Challenges

Recession: The economy is projected to contract by 4% in 2020, marking the first recession since 1995. The contraction is driven by reduced production, disrupted global value chains, and travel restrictions.
Recovery Timeline: Recovery is expected to be slow, with real GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2022. The post-pandemic growth is forecasted to average 3.8% over 2022–2024.
Challenges: The pandemic has created significant uncertainty, with the potential for prolonged economic and social impacts. Job and income losses are widespread, and private consumption and investment may be constrained due to precautionary behavior.
Policy Response: The government has taken swift and decisive actions, including border closures, strengthening the health system, and creating a Special Fund to mitigate economic impacts. A revised Finance Law was also prepared, the first in 30 years, to support fiscal reforms.

3. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic Activity: The pandemic has caused a sharp contraction in non-agricultural growth, with industrial and services sectors hit hardest.
Exchange Rate: The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 0.86% in the first quarter of 2020, which may increase vulnerability to imported inflation.
Public Finances: The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 7.5% of GDP in 2020, almost 4 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic projections.
Firms and Households: Many firms have been temporarily or permanently shut down, and a significant share of households have experienced income loss. Government assistance has helped 19% of households.
Tourism and Exports: Tourism and export revenues have declined sharply, with a particular impact on the services and manufacturing sectors. The recovery of these sectors is expected to be slow.

Key Information

Government Actions: The government has implemented a range of measures, including financial support for households and firms, and a fiscal reform roadmap.
Uncertainty: The pace and length of recovery are highly uncertain and depend on factors such as the discovery of effective treatments, future policy decisions, and global economic conditions.
Long-Term Strategy: Morocco has an opportunity to build a more resilient and sustainable economy by adopting a strategy for adaptation, similar to its environmental approach.

Special Focus: Adaptation and Resilience

Transition from Mitigation to Adaptation: To ensure long-term resilience, the government needs to move from short-term mitigation measures to long-term adaptation strategies.
Sustainable Recovery: The focus should be on developing a clear roadmap for lifting containment measures and improving the efficiency of public investment and fiscal policies.

Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Morocco's Growth Rate Volatility
Figure 2: Domestic Demand-driven Growth
Figure 3: Inflation Remains Low and Stable
Figure 4: Slowing Fiscal Consolidation
Figure 5: Central Government Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Figure 6: SOEs Guaranteed Debt Is Rising
Figure 7: Narrowing Current Account Deficit
Figure 8: Net International Reserves Recovering in 2019
Figure 9: Global Growth
Figure 10: Recession in Advanced Economies and EMDEs
Figure 11: Real GDP Growth in MENA Rapidly and Markedly Slumped into a Recession in 2020
Figure 12: Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Morocco
Figure 13: Health systems in the Maghreb (2017)
Figure 14: Morocco: Change in Mobility Patterns
Figure 15: Historical Episodes of Economic Contraction in Morocco, 1980–2020
Figure 16: Sharp Downward Growth Revision (percentage points)
Figure 17: Decline in Demand-Side Components (percentage points)
Figure 18: Y-o-y Inflation Turned Negative in May with Strong Relative Changes Due to COVID-19
Figure 19: No Pressure in the Exchange Rate Market
Figure 20: Lower External Financing Cost for Morocco
Figure 21: Stable Cover Ratio of Government Securities
Figure 22: Declining Exports Q1–2020
Figure 23: Declining Imports Q1–2020
Figure 24: Declining Remittances Inflows
Figure 25: Declining FDI (January–April)
Figure 26: Change in Airport Passenger Arrival
Figure 27: Declining Tourism Revenues
Figure 28: Reported Jobs Losses (April 2020)
Figure 29: Share of Households without Sources of Income Due to the Lockdown
Figure 30: Current Financial Sources of the Household (in %)
Figure 31: Share of Households Receiving Government Assistance for Job Loss (in %)
Figure 32: Proportion of Companies Temporarily or Permanently Shut Down by Sector of Activity
Figure 33: Status of Firm's Activity
Figure 34: Fiscal Support in Selected MENA
Figure 35: Liquidity Support in Selected MENA
Figure 36: Increased Central Bank Refinancing Maturity
Table 1: Morocco: Selected Economic Indicators, 2016–2023
Table 2: Morocco: Key Fiscal Indicators, 2016–2023

Conclusion

Morocco has made significant progress in economic and social development over the past two decades. However, the impact of the pandemic has introduced a severe recession, requiring a shift from mitigation to adaptation. The government's proactive response, including financial support and fiscal reforms, is crucial to managing the crisis and ensuring a sustainable recovery. The path to recovery remains uncertain and will depend on both domestic and global factors.

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