世界发展银行-Malaysia-Economic-Monitor,-June-2021---Weathering-the-Surge_88页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of Malaysia Economic Monitor - June 2021

Core Content

This Malaysia Economic Monitor (MEM) report, titled "Weathering the Surge", provides an analysis of recent economic developments and the outlook for Malaysia's economy in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It also highlights the challenges and opportunities for the private sector in rebuilding the economy post-pandemic.

Main Points

Recent Economic Developments

Economic contraction: Malaysia's economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2021, a slight improvement from the 3.4% decline in Q4 2020.
Domestic demand: Continued decline, but at a slower pace (-1.0% in Q1 2021 vs. -4.5% in Q4 2020), driven by the resumption of household activity and policy support such as the Employee Provident Fund (EPF) withdrawal scheme.
Private investment: Increased, mainly due to higher capital expenditure in the manufacturing sector.
Sectoral performance: Manufacturing led the recovery, while services, mining, and construction sectors saw more moderate contractions.
Export growth: Accelerated in Q1 2021, driven by strong global demand for E&E products and rubber gloves, with projections of 13.1% growth in 2021.
Inflation: Headline inflation rose due to increased fuel prices and normalization of electricity tariffs, projected to reach 3.0% in 2021 (compared to -1.2% in 2020).
Unemployment: Remained elevated, especially among 15-24 age group, with private sector wages contracting less than before.
Fiscal policy: The government implemented three stimulus packages totaling RM75 billion (5.5% of GDP), with direct fiscal injection at 1.2% of GDP.
Fiscal deficit: Expected to rise to 6% of GDP in 2021, up from the earlier target of 5.4% and 6.2% in 2020.
Vaccination efforts: The government withdrew RM5 billion from the National Trust Fund to finance vaccine procurement, but the vaccination rollout remains slow and vaccine hesitancy is high.
Health system strain: The current wave of the pandemic has pushed the health system to near maximum capacity, with ICUs operating at 100%.
Movement Control Orders (MCOs): Re-imposed, leading to uncertainty in economic recovery and negative spillovers on consumption and business activities.

Economic Outlook

Global growth: Projected to rise by 5.6% in 2021, the strongest post-recession growth rate in 80 years, but uneven across countries.
Malaysia's growth: Expected to be 4.5% in 2021, 1.5 percentage points lower than the earlier forecast of 6.0%, due to slow pandemic suppression and vaccine rollout.
Downside risks:
- Ineffective containment could lead to prolonged movement restrictions.
- Delays in vaccine rollout may hinder economic recovery.
- High number of vulnerable households and domestic political uncertainty could prolong recovery efforts.
Private consumption: Expected to grow by 4.2% in 2021, while public consumption will continue to expand at a slower pace.
Import growth: Projected to increase by 13.6% in 2021, with intermediate and capital imports regaining momentum.
Investment: Likely to be driven by recovery in export-related activities, with GFCF expected to rebound to 6.2%.
Productivity and innovation: The private sector, especially SMEs, is underperforming in terms of productivity and technology adoption.
Fiscal policy: Should prioritize protecting vulnerable groups and strengthening the health system, rather than focusing solely on medium-term fiscal consolidation.
Structural reforms: Needed to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth, increase productivity, and promote private-sector innovation.

Key Recommendations

Effective containment measures: Implement a smart find-test-trace-isolate-support (FTTIS) strategy to ensure a safe and gradual reopening of the economy.
Accelerate vaccination rollout: Extend vaccination center hours (including weekends) and redeploy volunteers to reach remote areas.
Public communication: Launch a sustained and effective campaign to reduce vaccine hesitancy.
Financial support: Continue financial assistance for vulnerable groups, especially the B40 income group.
Digital adoption: Encourage firms to adopt digital tools to improve resilience and productivity.
Fiscal space: Consider revisiting the debt limit to ensure additional fiscal space for health system strengthening and support for vulnerable groups.
Social protection: Enhance social protection systems to provide a guaranteed minimum standard of living and resilience against income shocks.
Structural reforms: Focus on deepening market integration, improving the business environment, and facilitating regional integration to catalyze business opportunities and increase productivity.

Special Topic: Resilient Recovery for the Private Sector

Private sector vulnerabilities: Exposed by the pandemic, especially SMEs, which face higher productivity gaps, lower technology adoption, and less investment in innovation.
Digital transformation: Many firms are adopting digital tools, but government support is still needed for digital solutions.
Access to finance: Remains a challenge for the private sector, constraining recovery and future growth.
Policy focus: The government should focus on increasing private sector resilience, improving productivity, and fostering innovation.
Competitiveness: The pandemic has increased the urgency to enhance Malaysia's competitiveness, especially in trade and investment.
Long-term strategy: A productivity-led growth model is essential for sustaining economic transformation and improving living standards.
Structural reforms: Needed to remove market distortions, strengthen competition, and improve the investment climate.

Conclusion

The Malaysia Economic Monitor highlights the ongoing challenges posed by the pandemic, the importance of containment and vaccination, and the need for structural reforms to drive inclusive and sustainable growth. The private sector, particularly SMEs, is vulnerable and requires policy support to rebuild and adapt to the new economic environment. The government must prioritize public health, financial support for vulnerable groups, and fiscal flexibility to ensure a resilient recovery.