2025-06-03-Bernstein-达乐公司（DG）_快速解读_Dollar_General公司2025年第一季度业绩强劲超预期；2025财年指引上调但仍较为保守_12页_477kb

Dollar General Corp Q1 2025 Earnings and Guidance Review

Overview

Bernstein Research analyst Jeremy Miles upgraded Dollar General Corp (DG) to Outperform with a price target of $120. The report covers DG's strong Q1 2025 earnings, fiscal year 2025 guidance update, and associated risks.

Q1 2025 Performance Highlights

• Strong Beat: Q1 net sales grew by 5.3% YoY to $10.4B, exceeding consensus expectations by 160bps.
  • Comp sales growth: +2.4% (vs. consensus +1.2%), driven by +2.7% transaction growth but offset by -0.3% traffic.
  • Gross margin: Improved +80bps YoY to 31.0% due to lower shrink and higher inventory markups, partially offset by markdowns.
  • EPS: $1.78, a 32c beat.
• Overall performance in categories showed net sales increases in seasonal, home, consumables, and apparel.

FY2025 Guidance Update

• Raised Guidance: Net sales growth to 3.7%-4.7% (previously 3.4%-4.4%), same-store sales growth to 1.5%-2.5%.
  • EPS guidance: $5.20-$5.80 (previously $5.10-$5.80), assuming current tariff rates through mid-August.
• Guidance remains conservative amid tariff uncertainties, with plans to open 575 new U.S. stores, remodel 4,250 stores, and relocate 45 stores.

Analyst Recommendation

• Outperform: Based on a price target of $120, implying 23% upside from the closing price of $97.17.
• Valuation supported by 17x multiple on FY26 EPS, focusing on gross margin improvement and trade-in benefits.

Key Risks

• Economic slowdown for low-income consumers could weaken comps and expense leverage.
• Increased competition may lead to share loss.
• Delayed operational improvements in areas like shrink prevention or supply chain could limit growth and margin recovery.
• Failure to meet new store growth targets may hurt sales.
• Tariff uncertainties continue to pressure consumer spending.