那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-遗憾的是，“顺风”时代已经结束了-20171205-6页_508kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the monetary policy approach of central banks, particularly in the context of the United States and the euro zone, and evaluates the consequences of not "leaning against the wind" during periods of economic expansion.

Main Points

1. Central Banks' Policy Approach

• Lean against the wind: A strategy where central banks gradually tighten monetary policy during economic expansions to prevent financial imbalances such as overborrowing, asset price bubbles, and low risk premia.
• Current stance: Central banks have rejected this strategy and instead maintained highly expansionary monetary policies during expansions.
• Post-crisis strategy: Central banks prefer to "clean up" financial crises by using expansionary monetary policies once a crisis occurs, rather than preventing it through tighter policies.

2. Consequences of Not Leaning Against the Wind

• Financial imbalances: The lack of policy tightening has led to rising asset prices (equities, property) and compressed risk premia (credit spreads).
• Debt levels: Before the 2008 crisis, this approach resulted in significant increases in private sector debt. Since then, public debt ratios have also increased.
• Policy leeway: Due to low interest rates and high liquidity, central banks now have little room to implement expansionary policies if a crisis occurs, making "cleaning up" ineffective.

3. Historical Examples

• 2000 and 2008 crises: Central banks used expansionary monetary policies to respond to financial crises, as shown in the evolution of interest rates and monetary base.
• Current situation: The same pattern is now observed, but with the added risk that central banks may not have the capacity to respond effectively due to limited policy space.

Key Information

• Monetary policy remains highly expansionary: As indicated by low interest rates and high liquidity levels, central banks have not tightened policy during expansions.
• Financial imbalances are growing: Asset prices have risen significantly, and credit spreads have narrowed, increasing systemic risk.
• No room for policy response: The current monetary policy stance leaves central banks unable to act effectively in the event of a financial crisis.
• Regrettable policy choice: The author expresses concern over the rejection of the "lean against the wind" strategy, as it increases the likelihood of financial instability and limits the ability to respond to crises.

Conclusion

The document concludes that the rejection of the "lean against the wind" strategy by central banks is regrettable. It leads to financial imbalances and limits the ability to "clean up" crises when they occur, as the necessary policy tools are already exhausted.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and must not be disclosed to third parties without permission.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation or a financial analysis.
• No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or use of the information provided.
• The views expressed are the author's personal opinions and may differ from those of Natixis or its affiliates.