那提西银行-美国-经济理论-美国的资本主义很快就会被取代么？-20180111-5页_407kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document explores a significant trend in American capitalism: the shift from publicly listed companies to unlisted (private) entities. It highlights the implications of this transition on the equity market, investor behavior, and the broader economy.

Main Trends

• Share Buybacks: US non-financial corporations have been continuously buying back their shares, leading to a decrease in the number of listed shares.
• Decline in Listed Companies: There is a noticeable reduction in the number of listed companies and an increase in unlisted companies.
• Market Valuation Shift: The market value of companies is becoming less volatile as unlisted companies are valued based on fundamentals rather than continuous trading.

Key Explanations

• Distrust in Equity Markets: Investors and companies are increasingly skeptical of the equity market due to its volatility, bubbles, and the risk of market crashes.
• Performance of Unlisted Companies: Private equity-owned companies appear to outperform listed ones in terms of investment, profitability, and innovation, according to academic research.
• Return on Equity: Companies are motivated to reduce their capital base through share buybacks to increase earnings per share and return on equity.

Effects of the Shift

Long-Term Effects

• Illiquid Investments: Investors will have to move from liquid equities to illiquid private equity investments.
• Reduced Market Volatility: The market value of companies will be less variable, potentially stabilizing the real economy and reducing wealth fluctuations.
• Loss of Market Information: The absence of a robust equity market may lead to a loss of real-time information on company performance and economic outlook.

Short-Term Effects

• Equity Market Bubble Risk: A decline in the supply of equities combined with strong demand may lead to an increase in share prices and a potential bubble.
• Price Volatility: The short-term equilibrium may result in higher share prices, driven by reduced supply and sustained demand.

Conclusion

The trend of moving from listed to unlisted companies in the United States represents a paradoxical shift in shareholder capitalism. While it may be driven by a desire to stabilize share prices and improve returns, it could ultimately lead to a loss of market transparency and liquidity. The long-term impact includes a transformation of investment behavior and a reduction in market volatility, but the short-term risk of a bubble remains.

Disclaimer and Legal Notes

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only and is strictly confidential.
• It is not a personalized investment recommendation and does not constitute financial analysis.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The document is subject to legal restrictions in certain jurisdictions and must be used in accordance with applicable laws.
• Natixis is authorized and regulated in various countries, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UAE, by relevant financial authorities.

Regulatory Information

• France: Supervised by ACPR and regulated by Autorité des Marchés Financiers.
• United Kingdom: Regulated by FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority.
• Germany: Supervised by ACPR and subject to limited regulation by BaFin.
• Spain: Rated by Bank of Spain and CNMV.
• Italy: Regulated by Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
• UAE: Authorized by DFSA and regulated in DIFC.

This summary encapsulates the document's key insights, trends, and implications, while adhering to the legal and regulatory context provided.