【Teneo愿景】2025全球CEO及投资者调研报告36页_8mb

Summary of "Where is the World Going in 2025 and Beyond?"

Core Content

This report provides insights from a survey of over 300 global CEOs and 380 institutional investors, representing approximately $10 trillion USD in market cap and AUM. It outlines expectations and concerns for 2025 and beyond, focusing on macroeconomic trends, the Trump effect, geopolitical developments, innovation, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) strategies, and leadership dynamics.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Growth Expectations: There is a significant increase in optimism about the global economy improving in the first half of 2025, with 77% of CEOs and 86% of investors expecting improvement.
• M&A Resurgence: Over 80% of CEOs and investors anticipate a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in 2025, driven by improved access to capital and potential policy changes under the Trump administration.
• U.S. as Investment Destination: The U.S. is seen as the most attractive investment destination, while Africa receives the least attention. APAC CEOs are particularly interested in investing in India.
• UK Listing Trends: UK CEOs show increased optimism about the value of domestic listing, with 68% reporting value in the past 12 months, and 78% optimistic about future benefits. A significant number of UK-based companies are discussing moving their listings away from the UK.

The Trump Effect

• Policy Optimism: Despite concerns about tariffs and trade, the prospect of lower taxes and reduced regulation is leading to optimism. Over 64% of respondents believe these changes will positively impact their businesses.
• Investment Shifts: 50% of global CEOs are increasing investment in areas such as domestic and international investment and hiring based on the 2024 election results.
• Corporate Preparedness: 80% of CEOs and investors feel well-prepared for potential U.S. policy changes, including trade disruptions, increased M&A activity, and a strong dollar.

Geopolitics

• Global Stability and Economy: 76% of CEOs and 83% of investors believe that the outcomes of 2024 global elections will improve the global economy and stability.
• Regional Divergence: APAC CEOs are the most optimistic about the global economy (66%), but less confident about global stability (44%). MENA CEOs are more cautious about global stability due to regional conflicts.
• Deglobalization Concerns: 98% of CEOs and 97% of investors are concerned about the impact of deglobalization, with CEOs showing stronger concerns about geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues.
• China's Role: China remains a critical market for both CEOs and investors, with the percentage of CEOs indicating its importance in their strategy more than doubling since 2023. However, some companies are shifting supply chains out of China due to expected anti-China protectionism.

Innovation

• AI as a Priority: AI is the leading technological focus for 2025, with 97% of CEOs and 98% of investors planning to maintain or increase AI investments.
• Investment Strategy: Large-cap CEOs are more focused on AI, while mid-cap companies are diversifying into other emerging technologies such as crypto, quantum computing, and AR/VR.
• ROI Expectations: 51% of CEOs believe AI initiatives will deliver ROI within one year, while 82% of mid-cap companies and 79% of investors expect positive returns within 12 months. Large-cap CEOs are more patient, with only 41% expecting ROI within 1-2 years.
• Leadership Roles: CEOs expect the next generation of leaders to be fluent in data, transformation, and digital technologies, while investors prefer traditional leadership skills. CFOs are most likely to become CEOs, followed by COOs and CTOs/CIOs.

ESG

• ESG Adjustments: 91% of CEOs are recalibrating ESG programs, up from 72% in 2024. This reflects the politicization of ESG and the need for a more balanced approach.
• Balancing ESG with Core Business: 56% of CEOs and 54% of investors are committed to balancing ESG initiatives with core business objectives.
• Diversity and Inclusion (DEI): 94% of global CEOs plan to maintain or increase efforts in DEI, despite backlash. Only 1% of investors want companies to end DEI efforts.
• Challenges in ESG: Companies face hurdles such as regulatory changes, increased reporting, and uncertainty around government incentives, particularly with AI's energy demands.

Leadership

• Skills Demand: The next generation of leaders will need expertise in data, transformation, and digital technologies, contrasting with investors' preference for traditional skills.
• Leadership Pipeline: CFOs are expected to be the most likely to move into CEO roles, followed by COOs and CTOs/CIOs.

Key Information

• Positive Outlook: Despite challenges, there is a strong positive outlook for 2025, with expectations of economic improvement, increased M&A, and domestic investment.
• Policy Impact: The potential changes under a second Trump administration are seen as a major driver of optimism, especially in terms of M&A and trade.
• Global Trends: Deglobalization and the role of China in business strategies are major concerns and opportunities.
• AI and ESG: AI is a top priority for investment, with varying expectations on ROI timelines. ESG remains a key focus, with a need for balance and stakeholder engagement.
• Leadership Transition: A shift is expected in leadership skills, with a growing emphasis on digital and transformational capabilities.

Conclusion

The report highlights a dynamic and evolving landscape for global business in 2025, shaped by macroeconomic optimism, political shifts, and technological advancements. CEOs and investors are preparing for these changes, focusing on areas like AI, ESG, and M&A, while remaining cautious about geopolitical risks and regulatory changes.