2024-12-29-世界银行-印尼经济展望_2024年12月_为印尼2045年愿景提供资金（英）_49页_1mb

Indonesia's economy remains resilient in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and service sector growth. GDP growth is around 5%, supported by private consumption (55%) and government spending (10%). Inflation has softened to 1.5% headline rate due to declining food prices, though core inflation rose. The current account deficit widened, and fiscal policy eased slightly, with the deficit projected at 2.7% of GDP by 2024, staying within the 3% fiscal rule. The outlook is stable with balanced risks: growth is forecast at 5.1% average through 2027, supported by public spending and investment. However, challenges include potential tight monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and a widening CAD, despite global monetary easing boosting capital inflows.

Funding Indonesia’s Vision 2045

Indonesia needs to significantly increase tax revenues by 2030 to finance its Vision 2045, which aims for high-income status by 2045. The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio (10%) is below regional peers, reflecting a tax gap of ~6 percentage points of GDP, driven by low tax morale, weak enforcement, and informality. Key strategies to raise revenue include:

1. Broadening the Tax Base: Reduce the VAT registration threshold to IDR 0.5 billion to reach more firms. Remove special tax exemptions (e.g., for construction services) and rationalize CIT incentives.

2. Improving Tax Administration: Enhance compliance risk management (CRM) by leveraging third-party data, clarifying VAT regulations, and resolving disputes through stronger dispute resolution mechanisms.

3. Boosting Financial Sector Development: Deepen the financial system to improve tax compliance and formalization, especially among micro-enterprises, by simplifying registration and increasing access to credit.

4. Addressing Informality: Formalize businesses to expand the tax base and reduce evasion, supported by education campaigns and reduced registration costs.

These reforms aim to align Indonesia’s tax system with international best practices, addressing structural constraints to achieve sustained 6% growth by 2035.