世界银行-印尼经济展望，2024年12月：为印尼2045年愿景提供资金（英）-2024.12-49页_1mb

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Summary

The Indonesia Economic Prospects (IEP) report for December 2024 provides an in-depth analysis of the country's economic outlook, fiscal policy, and tax challenges, highlighting key recommendations for funding the Vision 2045 goal of achieving high-income status by 2045. Below is a concise summary:

Key Economic Developments:

Growth and Resilience: Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed to 5% in 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and government spending. Services remain the primary growth driver, while manufacturing growth has been mixed.
Inflation and Currency: Inflation softened to 1.5% year-on-year due to declining food prices and global easing. Currency volatility was managed effectively, supported by global liquidity and portfolio inflows.
Fiscal Policy: After two years of consolidation, the fiscal stance eased in 2024, with the deficit widening to 2.7% of GDP. Challenges include low tax revenue, rising debt service costs, and a significant tax gap.

Tax Gap Analysis:

Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the East Asia-Pacific region, with a 6 percentage points gap relative to peers. The gap stems from a combination of policy design (e.g., exemptions, low thresholds) and compliance issues (e.g., tax evasion, weak enforcement).
Non-compliance is widespread, with at least 25% of formal firms engaging in tax evasion. VAT and Corporate Income Tax (CIT) are the main revenue sources, but their potential is underutilized.

Recommendations for Revenue Mobilization:

Widen the Tax Base: Reduce VAT and CIT registration thresholds, remove special exemptions, and simplify tax codes to improve inclusivity.
Enhance Tax Administration: Strengthen compliance risk management using third-party data, clarify VAT regulations, and improve audit enforcement.
Deepen the Financial Sector: Expand access to formal finance to track economic activities and deter tax evasion.
Promote Formalization: Support micro-enterprises to formalize through simplified registration, education, and incentives.

Outlook and Risks:

Indonesia’s economic outlook is stable but balanced, with growth projected at 5.1% over 2024–2027. However, risks include geopolitical tensions, delays in reform implementation, and potential inflationary pressures.
Funding Vision 2045: Achieving high-income status requires a 4.5% average GDP growth, which necessitates increased public investment in human and physical capital, tied to sustainable fiscal reforms.

The report underscores that addressing structural reforms alongside tax improvements is crucial for Indonesia’s long-term growth and development. Failure to act risks fiscal strain, while success could position Indonesia as a regional leader in economic resilience and innovation by 2045.

For a bilingual version in English and Indonesian, refer to the full report on World Bank.

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