2018年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Monitor_April_2018___Economic_Transformation_94页_4mb

Economic Transformation: Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor - April 2018

Core Content

This report from the World Bank's Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Economic Monitor analyzes the economic transformation in the region, focusing on growth recovery, fiscal and external imbalances, and the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) in driving sustainable development. It also explores the impact of technological change on the energy sector and the challenges posed by the oil price volatility and geopolitical tensions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Global Outlook and MENA Economic Recovery

• Global Growth Recovery: The global economy is recovering, with growth projected at 3.1% for 2017 and 2018, driven by improved confidence and stability in commodity prices.
• MENA Growth: Economic growth in the MENA region is expected to rebound to 3.1% in 2018, up from 2% in 2017, and further increase to 3.3% in 2019 before slightly moderating to 3.2% in 2020.
• Drivers of Recovery:
  • A favorable global economic environment.
  • Stability in the oil market at relatively higher prices than 2014-15.
  • Resumption of construction activities in conflict-affected countries.
  • Stabilization policies and reforms.
• Fiscal and External Balances: Stabilization policies and reforms are expected to lower fiscal and external imbalances in the region.
• Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions, refugee crises, and rising unemployment and debt could pose risks to the positive outlook.

2. Oil Price Outlook

• Oil Prices: The oil price is expected to stabilize at around $53 per barrel in 2017, rising to $58 in 2018, and staying near $60 until the end of the decade.
• Factors Influencing Oil Prices:
  • OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts extended until the end of 2018, but are not expected to continue.
  • Potential increase in oil production by Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait could lead to a surplus in the market.
  • Continued shale oil production in the U.S. could ease oil prices.
  • Geopolitical risks in major oil-producing countries may cause temporary price spikes.

3. Economic Transformation and Growth

• Need for Transformation: While stabilization policies have helped, a second phase of reforms is needed to reach the region's growth potential.
• Private Sector Role: The report emphasizes the need to shift from the state as the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector growth.
• Services Sector Growth: The services sector is a key driver of growth in MENA. Technological change is expected to enhance high-tech jobs, which could generate 4.3 jobs per high-tech job across all occupation and income groups.
• Digital Economy: The region has a large pool of university graduates and high smartphone penetration, which can serve as a foundation for a digital sector that creates jobs for the youth.
• Country-Specific Growth:
  • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are expected to lead the growth rebound, with an average of 3% from 2018 to 2020.
  • Bahrain is expected to have slower growth due to low oil prices and market uncertainties.
  • Saudi Arabia is projected to return to positive growth in 2020, exceeding 2%.
  • United Arab Emirates is expected to grow at 3.3% by the end of the decade.

4. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs)

• Role of PPPs: PPPs are proposed as a means to provide alternative financing and support economic transformation.
• MFD Finance: The concept of "Maximizing Finance for Development" (MFD) is introduced, suggesting that PPPs can help crowd in private sector investment.
• Challenges in Implementation: The political economy of PPPs in MENA is complex, with risks related to fiscal sustainability and governance.
• Examples and Disclaimers: The report includes case studies and disclaimers for translations and adaptations, emphasizing the need for clear attribution and the risks of reusing third-party content.

Conclusion

The MENA region is expected to experience a growth rebound in 2018, driven by global recovery, oil price stability, and reform efforts. However, the growth remains below potential and insufficient to absorb the growing youth population. The report highlights the need for structural reforms, particularly in promoting private sector-led growth through technological advancement and effective PPP initiatives. It also underscores the risks posed by geopolitical tensions, debt levels, and the challenges of managing the impact of displaced populations on the region's economic stability.