2016年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Monitor_October_2016___Economic_and_Social_Inclusion_to_Prevent_Violent_Extremism_76页_9mb

Summary of "Economic and Social Inclusion to Prevent Violent Extremism" (MENA Economic Monitor, October 2016)

Core Content

This report by the World Bank Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region focuses on the relationship between economic and social inclusion and the prevention of violent extremism. It analyzes the broader economic context in the MENA region, the impact of low oil prices, and the role of social and economic exclusion in fueling extremist recruitment and activity.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

• Global growth in 2016 is projected to remain at 2.4%, below the long-term trend of 3.5% observed from 2000 to 2007.
• The global economy has been struggling with recession, terrorism, refugee crises, and uncertain commodity markets, especially oil.
• The U.S., EU, and Japan are expected to grow around 1.7% in 2016, with the U.K. likely to see a decline due to the Brexit referendum.
• The "Brexit effect" is expected to dampen growth in the U.K. and EU in the medium term.
• Prospects for a rebound are dim, as services and manufacturing confidence are declining.

Oil Market Developments

• The oil market has entered a new normal of low prices, with prices expected to remain between $53 and $60 per barrel.
• Global oil stockpiles are expected to stay above historical averages, and major producers like Iran, Kuwait, UAE, and Iraq are increasing output.
• The U.S. shale oil boom has reduced demand for oil from countries like Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria.
• OPEC members are expected to rebalance the market in early 2020 at prices close to the marginal cost of U.S. shale producers.

Impact on MENA Economies

• Real GDP growth in the MENA region is projected to fall to 2.3% in 2016, the lowest since 2013.
• The region's fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 9.3% of GDP in 2016, up from 2015.
• The regional fiscal surplus of $63 billion in 2013 is expected to turn into a deficit of $320 billion in 2016.
• GCC countries are expected to experience a sharp drop in growth, from above 3% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2016.
• Non-oil growth in Algeria and Oman is projected to fall to 3.7% in 2016, down from 5% and 7% respectively in 2015.

Challenges and Risks

• Oil exporters are facing long-term terms of trade shocks due to persistently low oil prices.
• Austerity measures by governments are reducing public spending, which in turn is slowing economic growth.
• The refugee crisis and regional conflicts are exacerbating fiscal pressures and economic instability.
• Risks include geopolitical tensions, a potential slowdown in the EU, and continued low oil prices, which could further destabilize the region.

Key Information

Economic Inclusion

• The report emphasizes that economic and social inclusion can help prevent violent extremism.
• It highlights that marginalized groups, especially youth and those with low education levels, are more vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups.
• The average age of Daesh recruits is around 25, with a significant proportion being young and poorly educated.

Social Inclusion

• Education levels among Daesh recruits are generally low, with many having less than a secondary education.
• Recruits from the Middle East and North Africa are more likely to be involved in combat roles, while those from other regions may have different roles.
• There is a strong correlation between unemployment and the likelihood of joining extremist groups.

Policy Recommendations

• Governments are advised to implement structural reforms to reduce reliance on oil and diversify the economy.
• These include eliminating fuel subsidies, reducing public-sector employment, privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and increasing direct and indirect taxes.
• The introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) is seen as a step towards diversifying fiscal revenues.

Regional Outlook

• Regional growth is expected to improve slightly to 3.1% and 3.5% over the next two years.
• The outlook for the GCC remains weak, with growth expected to stay below the pre-2011 boom levels.
• Oil importers are also facing economic challenges due to reduced financial inflows from the Gulf.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Real GDP Growth in the MENA region, showing a decline to 2.3% in 2016.
• Figure 1.2: Evolution of Oil Prices, highlighting the expected range of $53–$60 per barrel.
• Figure 1.3: MENA Macroeconomic Status, indicating the region's economic challenges.
• Table 1.1: Macroeconomic Outlook for MENA and its sub-regions, showing real GDP growth and fiscal balances.
• Table 1.2: GCC Oil Dependency, highlighting the increasing reliance on oil for export and fiscal revenues.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of economic and social inclusion in mitigating the risk of violent extremism. It suggests that addressing unemployment, improving education, and reducing reliance on oil are critical steps for long-term stability and growth in the MENA region.