2010年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Update_April_2010___Recovering_from_the_Crisis_28页_1mb

Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, April 2010: Recovering from the Crisis

Core Content

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is recovering from the global financial crisis, with an expected 4.4% regional GDP growth in 2010. The recovery varies across countries due to different impacts and channels of transmission, including the financial sector, oil prices, and balance of payments.

Main Groups in the Region

• GCC Oil Exporters: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates
• Developing Oil Exporters: Algeria, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen
• Oil Importers: Djibouti, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

Key Findings

1. Impact of the Crisis

• The global financial crisis of 2008 led to a severe global recession and had a direct negative impact on MENA through the decline in oil prices and international financial turmoil.
• The crisis also affected MENA through secondary channels: trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI).
• GCC countries were the hardest hit due to:
  • A negative terms-of-trade shock from the drop in oil prices.
  • A financial shock that destabilized overextended domestic banks and caused a real estate bubble to burst.
• Developing oil exporters were affected primarily through the oil price channel, with their non-oil growth helping to soften the decline.
• Oil importers were impacted by the secondary effects of the crisis, especially on trade and remittances, with their recovery dependent on the recovery of key markets like the EU and GCC.

2. Recovery Underway

• GCC countries are leading the regional recovery, with growth projected at 4.4% in 2010, a sharp rebound from near-zero growth in 2009.
• Their recovery is supported by:
  • Rebound in oil prices.
  • Stabilization of the financial sector.
  • Use of accumulated reserves and fiscal and monetary stimulus.
• The recovery of developing oil exporters depends heavily on global oil demand and prices.
• The recovery of oil importers is expected to slow slightly to 4.5% in 2010 from 4.8% in 2009, due to weak external demand and the negative impact of the crisis on FDI and remittances.
• Trade is recovering, with export revenue of oil importers expected to grow by 7.7% in 2010 after a 13% contraction in 2009.
• Remittances are expected to grow by 1.3% in 2010, but at a slower pace than pre-crisis years.

3. Challenges Ahead

• High unemployment remains a long-standing issue in the region, with the crisis not improving short-term prospects.
• Participation rates have dropped, especially in manufacturing, and the labor force is increasingly composed of discouraged workers.
• Inclusive growth is difficult to achieve due to:
  • Low access to finance.
  • Weak competitiveness.
  • A non-competitive business environment.
• Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary to support demand and the private sector, but this could lead to long-term fiscal sustainability issues.
• Financial stability is a major concern, especially for oil importers with limited fiscal space and the need to reduce deficits.
• The business environment in MENA is hindered by policy and regulatory uncertainty, lack of competition, and barriers to entry and exit.

World Bank Group Response

• The World Bank Group has actively supported the region through:
  • Iraq: Development policy loans and collaboration with the IMF.
  • Oil Importers: Technical and financial support for reforms in the financial, public, and trade sectors.
  • GCC Countries: Enhanced economic and financial monitoring, and support for trade finance through IFC's programs.

Long-Term Outlook

• The region has significant growth potential due to:
  • Abundant oil and gas resources.
  • A youthful and growing workforce.
  • A momentum toward economic diversification.
• However, long-term challenges include:
  • Stagnant standards of living due to insufficient income growth.
  • Low formal employment rates, especially among youth and women.
  • Weak private investment despite market-oriented reforms.
  • Need for reforms to improve competitiveness, access to finance, and business dynamism.

Conclusion

The recovery of the MENA region from the financial crisis is underway, but the pace and depth vary significantly by country. While GCC countries are leading the recovery, oil importers and developing oil exporters face more challenges. The region needs to address structural issues such as financial stability, competitiveness, and inclusive growth to ensure sustainable development in the long run.