2017年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Economic_Monitor_April_2017___The_Economics_of_Post-Conflict_Reconstruction_in_MENA_100页_9mb

报告摘要

Summary: The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA

Core Content

This document from the World Bank’s MENA Economic Monitor provides an analysis of the economic situation and post-conflict reconstruction challenges in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on Syria, Yemen, and Libya. It outlines the global and regional economic outlook, discusses the impact of low oil prices and conflict, and highlights the economic costs of war and the principles for effective reconstruction.

Main Views

Global Economic Outlook (2017)

Global economic growth is expected to improve slightly in 2017 and beyond, with a recovery in emerging and developing economies.
In 2016, global growth was 2.3%, down from previous years due to slow growth in commodity exporters and subdued growth in major economies like the U.S., Eurozone, China, and Japan.
A 1 percentage point increase in U.S. growth could lift global growth by 0.8 percentage points in advanced economies and 0.6 percentage points in emerging and developing economies.
There is a 50% probability that global growth in 2017 will be between 2% and 3.2%.

Oil Market Developments

Oil prices have been declining since 2014, with Brent Crude at around $50 per barrel in 2017.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 1.8 mbd in 2017 to stabilize prices.
However, U.S. shale production has offset these efforts, keeping prices low and suggesting a recovery beyond $50 is unlikely in the short term.
The oil market is now supply-driven, and without a demand shock or drawdown of stocks, prices will remain capped.

Key Information on MENA Economic Outlook

MENA Economic Performance (2013–2017)

Economic activity in the MENA region was subdued between 2013 and 2015, averaging 2.4% growth.
In 2016, growth improved to 3.5% and is expected to rise slightly to 2.6% in 2017 before stabilizing around 3.2% in 2018 and 2019.
Developing MENA countries are the main drivers of regional growth, with growth expected to increase from 1.1% in 2015 to 4.9% in 2016 and stay around 4% by 2019.

Fiscal and Current Account Trends

MENA countries had significant fiscal surpluses before the 2011 Arab Spring and the 2014 oil price drop, with a total surplus of $110 billion in 2010.
These surpluses were mostly spent on subsidies and public wages, with limited investment.
By 2016, the fiscal deficit had grown to $285 billion, mainly financed by debt and reserves.
With reforms, the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 1.5% of GDP by 2019.

Country-Specific Insights

GCC Countries: Growth declined from 3.8% in 2015 to 2.0% in 2016 due to austerity and oil production cuts. Fiscal balances worsened significantly.
Egypt: Implements key reforms, including VAT and exchange rate liberalization, leading to improved fiscal and current account balances.
Iran: Growth rebounded to 6.4% in 2016 after a 1.8% contraction in 2015, with a significant increase in oil exports and a projected current account surplus of 6.5% of GDP in 2017.
Yemen and Libya: Both are expected to see positive growth in 2017 due to increased hydrocarbon production, though their economic conditions remain fragile.

Economic Costs of Conflict

Syria

Pre-Conflict (1970–2010): Syria had a relatively efficient public spending system, with spending efficiency close to the frontier.
Civil War (2011–Present): The war caused significant human, physical, and economic losses.
Human Costs: Over 400,000 deaths and over 11 million displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees.
Physical Costs: Severe damage to infrastructure, with over 80% of residential buildings in Aleppo and 60% in Homs damaged.
Economic Costs: A $120 billion loss in GDP by 2016, with a significant decline in public spending efficiency and a large fiscal deficit.
Rebuilding Costs: Estimated at $160 billion, with a focus on rebuilding human capital, infrastructure, and institutions.

Yemen

Pre-Conflict (1970–2010): Yemen had a weak economic structure, with low productivity and inefficient public spending.
Civil War (2015–Present): The war has led to severe economic decline, with GDP falling by 9.6% in 2016.
Human Costs: Over 10,000 deaths and over 3 million IDPs.
Physical Costs: Damage to critical infrastructure, including water and sanitation (WATSAN) systems, and significant destruction in major cities.
Economic Costs: The war has severely impacted the economy, leading to a large fiscal deficit and a decline in economic activity.

Libya

Pre-Conflict (1970–2010): Libya had a strong economy with high oil revenues and a growing non-oil sector.
Civil War (2011–Present): The war led to a sharp decline in economic activity, with GDP dropping by 24% in 2013 and 8.9% in 2015.
Human Costs: Over 10,000 deaths and over 1.5 million IDPs.
Physical Costs: Severe damage to infrastructure, particularly in Benghazi.
Economic Costs: The war has led to a fiscal deficit and a decline in economic activity, with a focus on rebuilding the oil sector and stabilizing the economy.

Principles for Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Efficient Use of Resources: Prioritize investments in human capital, infrastructure, and institutions.
Fiscal Discipline: Address fiscal imbalances through structural reforms, including subsidy reductions and tax increases.
Inclusive Growth: Promote economic opportunities for all segments of society, including women and youth.
Private Sector Engagement: Encourage private investment and improve the business environment.
International Cooperation: Leverage international support and partnerships for effective reconstruction.

References and Additional Notes

The report is authored by Shanta Devarajan and Lili Mottaghi, with inputs from various experts.
Country notes are based on reports by country economists.
The document includes several boxes and figures for detailed analysis of economic indicators and reforms.
It emphasizes the need for long-term planning and sustainable development in post-conflict settings.

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