ECI-2021年媒体通货膨胀报告（英文）-2021.3-58页_11mb

ECI Media Management 2021 Inflation Report Summary

Core Content

This report from ECI Media Management provides an in-depth analysis of media inflation trends and developments in 2020 and forecasts for 2021, with a focus on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on media markets globally and regionally. It outlines economic and social changes, technological advancements, and regulatory shifts that are shaping the media landscape.

Main Points

Global Inflation Trends in 2020

• Offline media (TV, Newspapers, Magazines, OOH, Radio) experienced deflation, with the most severe declines in Print and OOH.
• Digital media (Digital Display and Digital Video) remained inflationary, showing resilience due to increased consumer reliance on digital platforms during lockdowns.
• China's quick recovery helped APAC maintain more stable offline media prices, but TV deflation in China is expected to drag down the region's overall offline forecasts in 2021.
• North America and Europe saw more pronounced deflation in 2020, while APAC and Latin America showed better resilience.

2021 Forecast

• Offline media is expected to recover, with inflation levels likely to match or exceed online media across most regions.
• Print media will remain deflationary globally.
• Digital media will continue to grow in share of budget and inflation levels, necessitating greater focus on transparency and effectiveness of digital campaigns.
• TV is expected to see price increases in 2021, especially in Europe and North America, driven by continued demand and recovery efforts.

Global Economic Outlook

• The IMF predicts global economic growth of 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, though recovery will vary by country depending on vaccine rollouts and economic structures.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a sharp drop in Q2 2020, but some recovery was observed in Q3, particularly in the US.
• GDP contraction was widespread in 2020, with the UK and India being the hardest hit. All major markets are expected to return to growth in 2021.

Key Global Events

• Polarization in the US following the election and Capitol siege will influence advertising strategies.
• The UK-EU Free Trade Agreement will impact data management and protection, with a six-month bridging period for data transfer.
• International travel decline has shifted advertising budgets toward video conferencing platforms like Zoom, Skype, and Microsoft Teams.
• Sporting events have been delayed or rescheduled, with a focus on broadcasting rather than in-person attendance.

Cultural Movements

• Diversity and inclusion have become central to advertising, with 64% of US consumers willing to take action after seeing inclusive ads.
• Environmental concerns are rising, with the US rejoining the Paris Agreement and a focus on sustainable fuels in aviation.

Media and Tech Developments

• Connected TV (CTV) is growing rapidly, with US ad revenue predicted to reach $11 billion in 2021. CTV is becoming a key channel for advertisers.
• Podcasting is emerging as a new digital frontier, with expected growth in both audience and ad revenue.
• The demise of cookies is accelerating, with Safari and Firefox blocking third-party cookies and Google phasing them out by 2021. This is driving the adoption of first-party data and contextual marketing.
• Blockchain is being explored as a solution to issues like ad fraud, data discrepancies, and opaque supply chains in digital marketing.

Key Information

• Offline media is expected to show recovery in 2021, though Print remains deflationary.
• Digital media is becoming more dominant, with higher inflation levels and budget share.
• CTV is a growing platform, especially for millennials and Gen Z, with platform operators like Roku and Amazon leading the charge.
• Podcasting is gaining traction, with big tech companies investing heavily in the space.
• Cookie phase-out is driving a shift toward first-party data and privacy-compliant advertising.
• Blockchain is being seen as a potential game-changer in digital advertising for transparency and fraud prevention.

Regional Trends

Conclusion

The report highlights that the coronavirus pandemic has significantly reshaped media consumption and advertising strategies. While offline media is recovering, digital media continues to grow in both share and price. CTV, podcasting, and first-party data are key areas of focus for advertisers. The demise of cookies and blockchain adoption are transforming the ad tech landscape, with a greater emphasis on transparency and effectiveness. As the world continues to adapt to the new normal, marketers must remain agile and informed to optimize their investments effectively.