20140127-DBS_Group-China_Property_Sector_Credit_risk_a_major_concern_16页_618kb

报告摘要

Credit Risk Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the current state and outlook of the China property sector, focusing on credit risk concerns and investment opportunities. It outlines the sentiment of investors, highlights key companies, and provides valuation data and recommendations.

Investor Sentiment

Most investors remain bearish or neutral on the sector due to credit crunch fears in China.
Focus remains on big caps such as:
- China Overseas (688 HK)
- CR Land (1109 HK)
- Shimao (813 HK)
- Country Garden (2007 HK)
There is increased interest in smaller names with event-driven catalysts.

Key Investment Opportunities

COLI (688 HK) and Franshion (817 HK) are recommended due to their event-driven catalysts:
- COLI's potential asset injection is seen as a positive factor:
  - Mitigates concerns over growth sustainability
  - Improves overall efficiency
  - Minimal EPS dilution
- Franshion could see stronger-than-peers sales growth and a spin-off of hotel assets to unlock value.
Shimao (813 HK) and Country Garden (2007 HK) are also highlighted for their decent presales outlook in 2014 and recent share price pull back.
The document suggests that long funds should accumulate big caps with strong fundamentals and good track records.

Market Performance

HSI: 22,450
The market cap and price data are denominated in HKD for most companies, with some in SGD.
The discount to NAV is noted as a key valuation metric, with NAV at 39%.

Valuation Comparison

Company Name	Code	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$bn)	Target Price (HK$)	Recommendation	FY14F PE	Growth (14F)	PE Yield	Yield	ROE	ROE y	Net Gearing	P/Bk	NAV	Disc/(Prem) to NAV
China Overseas	688 HK	21.65	176.9	29.84	Buy	8.0	13	32	6.0	2.2	2.5	19.8	22.1	14.9	1.8
Country Garden	2007 HK	4.33	79.9	6.31	Buy	6.1	30	6.1	5.0	4.6	6.0	21.8	23.3	57.9	1.6
CR Land	1109 HK	18.92	110.3	25.77	Buy	10.6	22	37.8	8.9	1.9	2.3	13.0	14.0	38.2	1.5
Evergrande	3333 HK	2.84	45.6	4.32	Buy	3.5	(3)	n.a.	2.9	7.3	7.1	18.9	19.5	58.4	0.7
Shimao Property	813 HK	17.70	61.5	22.85	Buy	6.9	30	6.9	5.7	3.2	4.1	16.8	18.0	60.8	1.3
Agile Property	3383 HK	7.30	25.2	10.17	Buy	4.3	3.8	36.9	5.0	3.6	9.8	13.0	13.5	59.4	0.7
COGO	81 HK	6.50	14.8	12.05	Buy	4.0	3.3	n.a.	3.3	1.9	2.6	30.3	27.8	11.4	1.5
Franshion	817 HK	2.65	24.3	3.76	Buy	6.6	5.4	48.2	5.4	3.4	4.6	12.3	13.4	53.4	0.9
Shui On Land	272 HK	2.31	18.5	2.70	Hold	13.1	7.8	25.0	6.5	1.4	2.0	2.9	4.8	58.5	0.4
Sino-Ocean Land	3377 HK	4.54	33.1	4.54	Hold	7.9	6.5	82.2	7.9	3.8	4.5	8.7	9.8	48.7	0.6
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	1.70	15.8	2.51	Buy	5.4	4.7	32.0	4.7	5.4	7.4	9.5	10.2	54.5	0.5

Key Observations

The sector is range-bound in the short term, with low valuations creating opportunities for long-term accumulation.
Event-driven catalysts are underappreciated in the market, especially for COLI and Franshion, which are trading near trough levels.
Shimao and Country Garden are highlighted for their presales outlook and share price pull back.
The discount to NAV is a key metric for valuation, with Tier 1 and Tier 2 players showing varied levels of discount.

Valuation History

The PE valuations for companies from 2007 to 2013 show fluctuations, with various troughs and peaks.
China Overseas and Country Garden have historical PE data showing significant volatility.
Franshion and Shimao have notable PE trends, with event-driven catalysts influencing their valuation.

Conclusion

The China property sector is currently facing credit risk concerns, particularly due to trust product issues and financial sector ripple effects. Despite this, big caps like China Overseas, CR Land, Shimao, and Country Garden are still recommended for their strong fundamentals and event-driven catalysts. Investors are also showing interest in smaller names with catalysts that could unlock value. The sector remains range-bound in the short term, but long-term accumulation is advised for those with strong fundamentals.