2024-02-21-哈佛大学-2023年美国住房报告_52页_7mb

The State of the Nation's Housing 2023 Summary

Housing Market Overview

• Market Cooling: Both for-sale and rental housing markets have cooled by early 2023 due to higher interest rates and affordability challenges.
  • For-sale homes saw declining prices and inventory, with a 37.5% nominal price increase since 2020 and existing homes for sale reduced to under 1 million units.
  • Rent growth slowed significantly, with professionally managed apartment vacancies rising to 5.2% and asking rents increasing modestly.

Homeownership Challenges

• Increased Costs: Higher mortgage rates (e.g., 6.5% vs. 4.2% a year prior) have priced out many potential buyers, especially low-income households.
  • Monthly mortgage costs on the median home rose $500, requiring $117k annual income to afford.
• Racial Gaps: The Black homeownership rate rose slightly (3.1 pp between 2019-2022) to 45.9%, remaining 28.6 pp below the white rate.

Rental Housing Situation

• Cost Burdens Widen: Renter cost burden rates reached 49%, with low-income households (below $15k) experiencing the highest burdens.
  • 21.6 million cost-burdened renters in 2021, up from 16.2 million a year earlier.

Housing Shortage and Supply Issues

• Persistent Shortages: The U.S. faces a housing deficit of at least 1.5 million units, with supply constrained by zoning restrictions and construction costs.
  • Single-family construction fell 10.8% in 2022, while multifamily construction reached a 50-year high.

Homelessness and Housing Insecurity

• Unsheltered Homelessness Rises:
• Unsheltered homelessness increased 3.4% to 233,830; total homelessness rose minimally due to lower shelter use.

Housing Stock and Infrastructure

• Aging Stock: The median home age reached 43 years; 9.5 million homes have structural deficiencies.
• Climate Risks: 14.5 million homes at risk from climate hazards in 2021, requiring adaptation investments.

Racial Segregation and Inequities

• Concentrated Poverty: People of color are disproportionately housed in high-poverty areas; Black renters experienced the largest vacancy rate increases in formerly affordable cities.
• Segregation Trends: California led with a 7% rise in unsheltered homelessness, despite overall stability from pandemic support programs.

Financial and Programmatic Challenges

• Subsidy Deficits: Rental assistance programs operate at near-record lows; subsidies fall short of maintenance needs for public housing ($80B+ gap) and development needs.

Policy Recommendations

• Expand affordable housing programs;
• Streamline zoning reforms to increase housing supply;
• Invest in climate-ready housing and accessibility features;
• Address racial inequities through targeted investments and fair housing policies.