2024-02-29-哈佛大学-2024年美国房屋租赁报告_56页_4mb

Rental Markets Cool: Supply growth outpaces demand, vacancy rates rise, and rent increases stabilize but remain above pre-pandemic levels.

• Renter growth surged during the pandemic, stabilized in 2023.
• Key drivers: Gen Z/millennial demand, declining Gen Z/boomer households.

Affordability Crisis:

• Cost burdens reach record highs (50% of renters), exacerbated by stagnant incomes and rising rents.
• Low-income households face the greatest challenges; low-rent units dwindle.
• Residual incomes remain historically low; energy and insurance costs add burden.

Rental Stock Characteristics:

• Stock ages, with units post-2000 vulnerable to hazards, physical inadequacies, and accessibility issues.
• Large buildings now dominant (90%), displacing smaller, affordable units.
• Zoning barriers limit supply diversity, especially in suburbs.

Market and Assistance Challenges:

• High vacancy rates (6.6%) and falling vacancy-adjusted rents.
• Rental assistance programs underfunded, with LIHTC and vouchers largest providers.
• Evictions rebound to pre-pandemic levels as pandemic protections expire.
• Homelessness at record 653k; disparities in vulnerability by race.

Climate and Energy Risks:

• Rental stock highly exposed to climate hazards (41M units at risk).
• Energy inefficiency strains budgets; green retrofits underutilized.
• Insurers withdraw from high-risk areas, worsening rental insurance costs.

Future Outlook:

• Short-term stabilization, long-term demand driven by Gen Z and aging populations.
• Key barriers: financing, regulatory constraints, and affordability gaps.
• Expansion of subsidies, zoning reforms, and climate resilience investments needed to address persistent challenges.