哈佛大学肯尼迪学院-数字货币的地缘政治（英）-2022.1-26页_1mb

The Geopolitics of Digital Currency Summary

Core Content

This report by Sarah Sewall and Ming Luo from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School examines the geopolitical implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), with a particular focus on China's e-CNY and the U.S. response. It highlights how digital currencies, as data, can influence international financial systems and national security, and how the U.S. is lagging behind in the development of its own CBDC.

Main Points

1. CBDCs and Their Role in the Financial System

• CBDCs are legal tender digital currencies issued by governments or central banks.
• Unlike private cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin), CBDCs are government-backed and centrally controlled.
• Retail CBDCs are designed for public use, not just for institutional or wholesale transactions.
• They offer programmability, enabling new forms of monetary policy implementation and direct government payments.

2. China's Leadership in CBDC Development

• China has been researching CBDCs for nearly a decade and is poised to be the first major economy to deploy a retail CBDC.
• The e-CNY is being developed with a "two-tiered" system, involving commercial banks and technology firms like Tencent and Union Pay.
• China aims to promote international use of its digital currency and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and SWIFT.

3. Geopolitical Implications of CBDCs

• CBDCs could disrupt the U.S. financial system by enabling direct cross-border transactions and reducing the need for intermediaries like SWIFT.
• The U.S. dollar's dominance as a reserve currency is at risk, as CBDCs may shift financial power to other nations.
• The U.S. needs to accelerate its CBDC development to maintain its leadership in global financial systems.

4. Privacy and Security Concerns

• CBDCs provide central banks with direct access to transaction data, raising concerns about privacy and data security.
• Nations must balance privacy, security, and law enforcement needs in their CBDC design.
• China's e-CNY uses a "managed anonymity" approach, allowing for varying levels of identity verification depending on transaction size.
• The report warns that CBDCs could be used for surveillance and social control, as seen in China's integration of financial data with state systems.

5. Global Payment Systems and the U.S. Dollar

• SWIFT is a key international payment system, but its dominance is challenged by CBDCs and initiatives like China's CIPS.
• CIPS is a Chinese alternative to SWIFT, offering faster and cheaper cross-border transactions.
• The U.S. must engage with global partners and institutions to shape CBDC standards and ensure its continued influence in international finance.

Key Information

• U.S. Lag in CBDC Development: The U.S. has not yet made significant progress on a CBDC, while China is actively deploying its e-CNY.
• CBDC Design Considerations: Governments must consider policy goals, privacy, security, and architectural choices (e.g., two-tiered systems) when designing CBDCs.
• China's e-CNY:
  • Launched in 2020, it is being tested in select cities and expanded gradually.
  • Operates through a two-tier system, involving commercial banks and tech firms.
  • Offers offline transactions and integration with existing mobile payment systems.
• Potential Risks of CBDCs:
  • Fragmentation of global payment systems.
  • Threat to the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status.
  • Surveillance and control risks due to centralized data access.
• U.S. Response:
  • The Federal Reserve is conducting research on CBDCs.
  • Project Hamilton is a collaborative effort with MIT to develop a modular and scalable CBDC platform.
  • The U.S. should prioritize timely and collaborative CBDC development to maintain its global influence.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that the U.S. must act quickly to develop its own CBDC and engage in international collaboration to shape the future of digital currency. While CBDCs offer benefits such as financial inclusion and efficiency, they also pose significant geopolitical risks, particularly if the U.S. does not keep pace with China's advancements. The U.S. should leverage its research efforts and build a coalition of nations to promote open, democratic, and secure CBDC standards.

References

• People's Bank of China. Progress of Research & Development of E-CNY in China. July 2021.
• Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication.
• Ossinger, Joanna. "Crypto Market Retakes $2 Trillion Market Cap Amid Bitcoin Gains." Bloomberg.com. August 15, 2021.
• U.S. Treasury. "Report on Stablecoins." November 2021.
• Atlantic Council. "Atlantic Council Releases New State-of-the-Art Central Bank Digital Currency Tracker." July 22, 2021.
• Wyss, Jim. "How the Tiny Bahamas Beat Global Giants in the E-Currency Race." Bloomberg.com. May 20, 2021.
• Sorensen, Sune. "China Is Opting out of US-Run Financial System." CoinDesk Opinion. April 30, 2021.