2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_July2018_111页_1mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - July 2018

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the oil market in June 2018 and outlines the outlook for 2019, including the impact of the Republic of the Congo's admission to OPEC, global economic growth, oil demand and supply trends, and market structures.

Main Points

OPEC Membership and Data Inclusion

• The Republic of the Congo was admitted as the 15th OPEC member on 22 June 2018.
• Data for the Republic of the Congo was included in OPEC reports, leading to adjustments in OPEC crude production, demand, and the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) figures.

Crude Oil Price Movements (June 2018)

• The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) decreased by 1.2% to $73.22/b, but remained within its three-year high.
• Dated Brent, WTI, and Dubai prices fell by 3.5%, 3.1%, and 0.8% respectively.
• Year-to-date (y-t-d), ORB was 36.3% higher at $68.43/b compared to the same period in 2017.
• Brent/WTI spread widened to $8.62/b, the largest since August 2015.
• Speculative net long positions increased sharply, especially in NYMEX WTI, with the long-to-short ratio rising to 21:1.

World Economy Forecast

• Global GDP growth for 2018 is 3.8%, and for 2019 is 3.6%, a slight slowdown.
• OECD growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, driven by US economic momentum.
• Non-OECD growth is projected at 7.3% for India and 6.5% for China, with China slowing to 6.2% in 2019 and India increasing to 7.4%.
• Euro-zone growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.0% in 2019.
• Brazil is expected to recover slightly to 2.1% in 2019, while Russia remains steady at 1.8%.

World Oil Demand

• Global oil demand in 2018 is expected to grow by 1.65 mb/d, with total consumption at 98.85 mb/d.
• 2019 demand growth is projected at 1.45 mb/d, with annual average consumption surpassing 100 mb/d.
• OECD demand is expected to rise by 0.27 mb/d, mainly from OECD Americas.
• Non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.18 mb/d, with China and India as the main contributors.
• Latin America and the Middle East are expected to see a steady acceleration in oil demand.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC supply in 2018 increased by 0.14 mb/d to 59.54 mb/d, and is expected to grow by 2.1 mb/d in 2019.
• Main growth drivers in 2019 are the US, Brazil, and Canada, while Mexico, Norway, and China are expected to see declines.
• US shale production will slow in H2 2018 and into 2019 due to take-away capacity constraints.
• OPEC NGLs production is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Higher crude prices suppressed product market margins and gasoline demand in all major trading hubs.
• US product markets experienced counterseasonal losses, except for fuel oil.
• European product markets saw losses due to poor performance at the top of the barrel.
• Asian product markets also showed losses, except for fuel oil.
• Strong gasoline surplus and slow demand from the Middle East heavily pressured product markets.

Tanker Market

• Crude oil tanker freight rates rose slightly in June, with VLCC and Suezmax seeing gains.
• Aframax rates were flat, while clean tanker rates declined due to MR tanker rate drops.
• High vessel availability limited gains in the VLCC market, and Caribbean demand helped Suezmax and Aframax.
• Mediterranean loading requirements declined, dampening average rates.

Stock Movements

• OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 8.6 mb in May to 2,823 mb, but remained 236 mb below the same time in 2017.
• Days of forward cover fell to 58.8 days, 2.4 days below the five-year average.
• Speculative positions increased in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent, with the long-to-short ratio rising sharply in WTI.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC-15 crude demand in 2018 is 32.9 mb/d, down 0.5 mb/d from 2017.
• 2019 demand is forecast at 32.2 mb/d, down 0.8 mb/d from 2018.
• If the global economy grows more than expected, OPEC will have sufficient supply to maintain market stability.

Key Information

• OPEC Reference Basket (ORB):

  • June 2018 average: $73.22/b
  • 1H18 average: $68.43/b, up 36.3% from 2017
  • Dated Brent, WTI, and Dubai prices fell by 3.5%, 3.1%, and 0.8% respectively.

• Oil Futures Market:

  • ICE Brent average: $75.94/b, down 1.4%
  • NYMEX WTI average: $67.32/b, down 3.8%
  • Y-t-d ICE Brent: $71.16/b, up 35.1%
  • Y-t-d NYMEX WTI: $65.46/b, up 31.1%

• Market Structure:

  • All three markets (Brent, WTI, Dubai) returned to strong backwardation.
  • Brent/WTI spread widened to $8.62/b.
  • Speculative net long positions increased significantly in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent.

• Supply and Demand Outlook for 2019:

  • Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.45 mb/d, slightly less than 2018.
  • Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by 2.1 mb/d, with US and Brazil as key contributors.
  • OPEC-15 demand is forecast to decline to 32.2 mb/d, a 0.8 mb/d decrease from 2018.

• Key Risks:

  • Economic slowdowns in major consuming nations.
  • Substitution with natural gas and other fuels.
  • Petrochemical project delays or cancellations.
  • Fuel efficiency programs, especially in the transportation sector.

Conclusion

The oil market in June 2018 showed mixed price movements, with the ORB declining slightly but remaining near its three-year high. The global economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2019, with OECD and non-OECD regions both facing challenges. Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow steadily, while OPEC-15 demand is projected to decline slightly. The futures market and backwardation trends suggest increased market volatility, with speculative activity playing a key role. OPEC remains prepared to adjust supply to maintain market stability, especially if global demand outperforms expectations.