2012年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_July2012_81页_1mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - July 2012

Core Content Overview

This report provides a detailed analysis of the oil market in July 2012, focusing on price movements, demand and supply trends, and the broader economic context. It also includes forecasts for 2013, highlighting the challenges and uncertainties facing the global oil market.

Main Points and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

• The OPEC Reference Basket fell to $93.98/b in June, marking the first time it had dropped below $100/b in 18 months.
• The price decline was 13%, the largest monthly drop since December 2008.
• ICE Brent and Nymex WTI both fell to multi-month lows, with WTI declining by $12.31 in June and $23.80 over the second quarter.
• ICE Brent had a larger decline, dropping $14.36 in June and $28.62 over the second quarter.
• The Brent market structure flipped into contango for the first time since August 2011, while the WTI contango remained unchanged.
• Nymex WTI front-month averaged $84.41/b in June, the first time under $90/b since October 2011.
• Speculative long positions were reduced significantly, with Nymex WTI net long positions falling by 9% and ICE Brent by 49% in June.

World Economic Outlook

• World economic growth for 2012 is at 3.3%, and is forecast at 3.2% for 2013.
• OECD growth is expected to remain sluggish, at 1.4% for 2013, while non-OECD countries, especially China and India, are expected to drive growth.
• China is projected to grow at 8.0% in 2013, slightly down from 8.1% in 2012.
• India is forecast to grow at 6.6% in 2013, up from 6.4% in 2012.
• Euro-zone remains a key concern, with ongoing sovereign debt and banking system issues expected to limit growth in 2013.
• MENA region growth is forecast to ease from 3.5% in 2012 to 3.0% in 2013.

Oil Demand and Supply

• World oil demand for 2012 is forecast at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.
• 2013 demand is projected to grow by 0.8 mb/d, a slowdown from the current year.
• OECD demand is expected to decline further in 2013, while non-OECD will continue to be the main driver of demand growth.
• Industrial and transport sectors are expected to be the main contributors to demand in 2013.
• Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.9 mb/d in 2013, up from 0.7 mb/d in 2012.
• OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d in 2013.
• OPEC production in June was estimated at 31.36 mb/d, a decline of 106 tb/d from the previous month.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Product market sentiment in the Atlantic Basin turned bullish in June, with gasoline strengthening due to tighter supplies and expectations for the driving season.
• Asia continued to face depressed margins due to weak naphtha demand and rising regional supplies.
• Diesel and naphtha are expected to show the most growth in 2013.
• US gasoline demand is forecast to improve slightly, but could be negatively affected by the pace of the country's economic recovery.

Oil Trade and Stock Movements

• US commercial oil stocks rose by 10.8 mb in June, the highest level since August 2011.
• Inventories were 17.0 mb above the same period in 2011 and 31.5 mb above the five-year average.
• Japan's commercial oil stocks increased by 6.4 mb in May, marking the highest level in a year.
• OPEC sailings and arrivals declined in June, while OPEC global fixtures rose by 7.7%.

Demand for OPEC Crude

• OPEC crude demand in 2012 remained at 29.9 mb/d, a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year.
• OPEC crude demand in 2013 is projected to decline by 0.3 mb/d to 29.6 mb/d.

Commodity Markets

• Commodity prices fell sharply in June, with energy prices dropping 12% m-o-m.
• Non-energy commodities also declined, with base metals falling 6.1% m-o-m.
• Gold prices rebounded by 0.6% m-o-m, while food prices edged down 1.2% m-o-m.
• The World Bank's Commodity Price Index saw its largest monthly drop since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
• The decline in commodity prices reflects concerns over Chinese economic growth and the European debt crisis.

Conclusion

The oil market in July 2012 was marked by significant price declines and continued economic uncertainty. OPEC's reference basket and key crude oil prices fell to multi-month lows, driven by weak economic data, speculative sell-offs, and increased global crude oil supplies. While demand is expected to grow in 2013, the growth rate is projected to slow, with non-OPEC supply likely to meet most of the demand increase. The market structure of both WTI and Brent futures showed a shift in contango, indicating potential changes in supply and demand dynamics. The report highlights the need for continued monitoring of the market due to the many uncertainties impacting future trends.