2018年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_MOMR_20November_202018_105页_2mb

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - November 2018

Core Content

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2018 provides an overview of global oil market developments, including price movements, supply and demand balances, inventory changes, and market structures. It outlines the current state of the oil market and the implications of recent trends on future outlooks.

Main Views

Crude Oil Price Movements

• The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $2.21, or 2.9% month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $79.39/b, the highest monthly average since October 2014.
• ICE Brent rose by $1.52, or 2%, to $80.63/b, while NYMEX WTI increased by 67¢, or 1.0%, to $70.76/b.
• Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent was up $20.54, or 38.7%, to $73.58/b, and NYMEX WTI increased by $17.63, or 35.5%, to $67.23/b.
• The Brent-WTI spread widened by 85¢ to $9.87/b.
• Hedge funds and other money managers reduced their speculative net long positions to the lowest levels in over a year, reflecting concerns about global oil demand and easing supply shortages.

World Economy

• The global economic growth forecast for 2018 remains at 3.7%, while the 2019 forecast was revised down to 3.5% due to slowing growth, trade tensions, and monetary tightening.
• In the OECD, US growth is unchanged at 2.9% for 2018 and slightly revised upward to 2.6% for 2019. The Euro-zone growth was revised down to 1.9% for 2018 and 1.7% for 2019.
• Non-OECD countries, including India and China, saw revised growth forecasts for 2018 to 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, and further down to 7.2% and 6.1% for 2019.
• Brazil and Russia maintain their GDP growth forecasts at 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively, for 2018 and 2019.

World Oil Demand

• 2018 oil demand growth is expected at 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision from 40 mb/d in the previous month.
• 2019 demand growth is forecast at 1.29 mb/d, about 70 mb/d lower than the previous month's projection.
• OECD demand growth is expected to be 0.25 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by 1.04 mb/d.
• Expected total oil demand for 2018 is 98.79 mb/d, and for 2019 is 100.08 mb/d.

World Oil Supply

• Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 is estimated at 2.31 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.09 mb/d from the previous month.
• In 2019, non-OPEC supply growth is revised up to 2.23 mb/d, with an average of 62.09 mb/d.
• US, Brazil, Canada, and the UK are expected to be the main supply growth drivers, while Mexico, Norway, Vietnam, and Indonesia are projected to see declines.
• OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.10 mb/d in 2018 and 0.11 mb/d in 2019, averaging 6.34 mb/d and 6.45 mb/d, respectively.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

• Product markets in the Atlantic Basin showed mixed performance in October.
• In the US, product markets strengthened due to lower product output and inventory drawdowns, boosting refining margins.
• In Europe, gasoline cracks fell to new lows, contributing to a decline in product markets.
• In Asia, product markets weakened due to regional gasoline oversupply, despite support from gasoil and fuel oil output.

Tanker Market

• Dirty tanker freight rates rose by 28% m-o-m, reflecting higher seasonal tonnage demand, weather delays, and ship replacements.
• Clean tanker freight rates also increased, though to a lesser extent.
• Higher bunker prices in October raised operational costs, affecting market gains.

Stock Movements

• OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 5.5 mb m-o-m in September to 2,858 mb, but remain 287 mb above the January 2014 level.
• Crude stocks showed a deficit of 29.6 mb, while products stocks had a surplus of 4.3 mb.
• Days of forward demand cover fell by 0.4 days to 59.3 days, indicating a more balanced market by the end of 2018.

Balance of Supply and Demand

• OPEC crude oil demand in 2018 is estimated at 32.6 mb/d, 0.9 mb/d lower than in 2017.
• OPEC crude oil demand in 2019 is forecast at 31.5 mb/d, 1.1 mb/d lower than 2018.
• Global oil demand in 2018 is expected to grow by 1.50 mb/d, while non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 2.23 mb/d, potentially leading to widening excess supply in 2019.

Key Information

• OPEC and non-OPEC countries are working to maintain market stability, with the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in place.
• The DoC has significantly reduced OECD commercial oil stocks, with a total drop of 213 mb since January 2017.
• Crude oil inventories in the US continued to rise, contributing to a slower increase in WTI futures compared to Brent.
• The Brent/WTI spread widened, reflecting different market dynamics and supply-demand imbalances.
• Market sentiment in the tanker sector improved due to increased freight rates, but operational costs rose due to higher bunker prices.
• Global oil inventories reached a record high in 2016 due to supply outpacing demand, but have since started to decline under the impact of the DoC.

Conclusion

The report highlights the positive impact of the DoC on reducing global oil inventories and rebalancing the market. However, it also warns of potential supply excess in 2019 due to higher non-OPEC supply growth and weaker demand outlooks. OPEC and its partners are expected to continue monitoring the market and adjusting policies accordingly to ensure stability and sustainability in the oil sector.