20230906-IMF-Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_2023_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_92页_6mb

报告摘要

IMF Article IV Consultation Summary: Bosnia and Herzegovina (2023)

Key Findings

Economic Performance: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) experienced moderate economic growth in 2022, declining to 2.0% in 2023, driven by weaker domestic and external demand. Inflation peaked at 17.4% in October 2022 but has since declined, remaining high at around 6% in 2023.
Fiscal Policy: Fiscal stance improved in 2022 but exacerbated in 2023 due to cost-of-living measures. Authorities are urged to restrain fiscal expansion to combat inflation, while boosting public investment in infrastructure, green energy, and digitalization.
Monetary Policy: The currency board faces pressure from global interest rates; the central bank is advised to raise reserve remuneration to narrow the interest rate gap with the euro area and enhance financial stability.
Structural Reforms: Delays in reforms hinder progress; key areas include anti-corruption measures, energy transition (e.g., coupling with EU market), and improving public enterprises' governance.

Staff Recommendations

Fiscal and Inflation Control: Restrict current spending, target social safety nets, and align tax policies with European standards to contain inflation and support private sector growth.
Currency Board and Financial Sector: Strengthen the board's resilience, eliminate market-distorting policies, and establish a single financial stability fund.
Green and Digital Transition: Accelerate decarbonization by adopting renewable energy laws and preparing for the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Governance and EU Integration: Fast-track an anti-corruption law, enhance transparency registries, and leverage EU candidacy to drive reforms.

Economic Outlook

Growth is projected to remain weak in 2023-2024, with inflation declining gradually. High downside risks include abrupt slowdowns in Europe, intensified political tensions, and financial sector vulnerabilities.

Conclusion

The IMF recommends a balanced policy mix focusing on fiscal prudence, monetary flexibility, and structural reforms to address challenges and support medium-term growth, underlining the importance of resolving political divisions and improving governance.

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