未来一年_脱_欧_对英国工业的影响（英文版）_38页_1mb

Summary of "A Year to Go: How Brexit Will Affect UK Industry"

Core Content

This report by The Economist Intelligence Unit examines the potential impacts of Brexit on six key UK industry sectors: financial services, healthcare and life sciences, automotive, consumer goods and retail, energy, and telecoms. It outlines two main scenarios: a comprehensive free trade deal (core scenario) and a no-deal Brexit (alternative scenario), and compares their economic and sector-specific consequences.

Main Viewpoints

• Brexit timeline: The UK is set to leave the EU by the end of 2019, with a 21-month transition period (until December 2020) during which the UK will remain part of the single market and customs union.
• Economic impact: The report forecasts that the UK economy will grow at a slower pace under both Brexit scenarios compared to the pre-Brexit trend. A no-deal Brexit is expected to have more severe consequences, including a decline in nominal GDP and a significant drag on real GDP growth.
• Sectoral effects: Some sectors, such as financial services, healthcare, and automotive, are expected to face more direct and challenging impacts, while others, like consumer goods and telecoms, will see more diffuse effects.
• Policy responses: The UK government has introduced an Industrial Strategy 2017 aimed at boosting productivity, innovation, and skills. However, these measures are seen as insufficient to fully offset the challenges of Brexit.
• Regulatory and trade issues: The loss of passporting rights and the need for mutual recognition and regulatory equivalence are central to the financial services sector. For other sectors, regulatory divergence and trade barriers are major concerns.

Key Sectors and Impacts

1. Financial Services

• Core Scenario: A Canada-style FTA is expected, with partial access to EU markets. Some firms may relocate operations and staff, but London is likely to remain a global financial hub.
• No-Deal Scenario: A sharp decline in UK financial sector activity is expected due to loss of passporting rights and reduced EU market access. Bank assets are forecast to grow by only 0.3% in 2022 under a no-deal scenario.
• Employment: Only a small number of jobs are expected to be relocated immediately. London's advantages, such as its legal framework, talent pool, and business environment, will likely retain its position as a leading financial centre.

2. Healthcare and Life Sciences

• Core Scenario: Exports are expected to shrink slightly, but regulatory agreements will help avoid shortages of medicines.
• No-Deal Scenario: Healthcare spending per head is projected to be £90 lower by 2022. Pharmaceutical imports will become more expensive due to a weaker pound, increasing pressure on the NHS.

3. Automotive

• Core Scenario: Car sales are expected to decline in 2018 and 2019 but recover in 2020. The UK will still benefit from EU trade ties.
• No-Deal Scenario: Automotive production will face significant challenges due to trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Vehicle sales are expected to be 13.1% lower in 2022. Cumulative vehicle sales between 2019 and 2022 will be 840,000 fewer under a no-deal scenario.

4. Consumer Goods and Retail

• Core Scenario: Slight decline in retail sales, but with some recovery expected.
• No-Deal Scenario: A more severe drop in retail sales due to increased import costs and lower consumer confidence. Nominal retail sales could fall by 13.4% in 2022.

5. Energy

• Core Scenario: Energy consumption is expected to remain stable, with some decline in oil, gas, and coal use.
• No-Deal Scenario: Energy consumption is forecast to be 2.9% lower by 2022 due to slower economic growth and reduced industrial activity. Energy costs may rise due to the UK's exit from the internal energy market.

6. Telecoms

• Core Scenario: Investment and mobile revenue growth will slow slightly but remain relatively stable.
• No-Deal Scenario: Telecoms investment and mobile revenue growth will decline more sharply. Investment growth is expected to be 3.3% under a no-deal scenario compared to 4.4% under the core scenario.

Key Information

• Economic growth: The UK economy is expected to grow at a slower rate under both Brexit scenarios. Under a no-deal scenario, real GDP growth in 2020-22 could be halved due to inflation and reduced economic activity.
• Exchange rate: A sharp depreciation of sterling is expected under a no-deal scenario, particularly in late 2019. This will increase import costs and inflation.
• Regulatory alignment: The UK will need to negotiate regulatory equivalence with the EU to maintain access to the single market, especially in the financial and healthcare sectors.
• Policy implications: The government has introduced several initiatives to support the economy, including increasing R&D investment, improving education and skills, and boosting infrastructure. However, these are seen as insufficient to fully address the long-term challenges posed by Brexit.
• Long-term outlook: Despite the challenges, the long-term outlook for the UK economy remains positive, with growth expected to pick up in the mid-2020s.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive FTA in mitigating the negative impacts of Brexit on the UK economy and its key sectors. A no-deal Brexit is likely to result in significant economic and sector-specific disruptions, especially in financial services, healthcare, and automotive. The UK's ability to adapt through policy and regulatory alignment will be crucial in determining the success of its post-Brexit economic strategy.