20240911-国金证券-电子行业研究_华为三折Mate_XT发布_持续看好折叠屏渗透_3页_557kb

报告摘要

总结报告：

事件：华为于9月10日发布新折叠屏手机Mate XT。

产品特性：

硬件：折叠核心硬件升级。单屏64英寸（3K，屏占比92%），双屏79英寸，三屏态102英寸，采用UTG玻璃。
展开厚度36毫米。
铰链：天工系统，首次内外弯折、双轨联动，采用超强火箭钢。
电池：全球最薄硅负极大容量电池（5600mAh，厚度19mm）。
系统：鸿蒙系统整合盘古大模型，提升输入法、语音编辑、阅读、翻译、修图能力。
销售：9月7日开启预约，9月20日正式开售。价格分别为256GB版19999元，512GB版21999元，1TB版23999元。预约人数截至9月11日已超500万。

市场与行业分析：

折叠屏市场持续增长：IDC数据表明，2024年上半年华为折叠屏手机销量达18903万部，同比增长138%，品牌份额达43%。整体中国市场销量达4427万部，同比增95%。
三折叠作为新品类：华为新品发布加速行业渗透。
产业链发展：折叠屏硬件成本持续下降，部件标准化、模块化趋势使生产效率提高，规模经济效应可进一步降低成本。
核心成本点：铰链与柔性屏是三折叠手机的主要成本增量。
耐用性？注：原文"BOMB成本"应为笔误，可能指核心/主要（Key）成本或爆品成本，结合上下文指核心成本。

投资建议（主要针对与折叠屏行业相关的中国资本市场参与者）：

折叠屏赛道有持续创新和兑现业绩的能力。
随后需关注友商跟进及具体销量数据。
关注东睦股份、OLED、UTG玻璃、OCA胶等供应商。
投资评级：行业观点为“买入”或“增持”。

风险提示：

市场竞争加剧风险。
下游需求或销量不及预期风险。

英文翻译：Please analyze the following content and provide a summary in Chinese without emojis. The summary should not exceed 1000 words.

Event: On September 10, Huawei released the foldable phone Mate XT. Key hardware improvements were made in the hinge and screen. In single-screen mode, the screen measures 64 inches, 79 inches in dual-screen mode, and 102 inches in tri-screen mode. The screen has a 3K resolution and a 92% screen-to-body ratio. It uses UTG glass. The thickness when fully opened is 36 mm. The hinge uses the Tian Gong Hinge system, achieving external folding for the first time, double-track linkage, and utilizes ultra-strong rocket steel and multi-angle suspension. The battery is a large capacity, ultra-thin silicon negative electrode battery measuring 19 mm in thickness and 5600 mAh. On the software side, the HarmonyOS system is equipped with the Pangu large model, enhancing input method, voice editing, reading, translation, and photo editing capabilities. Pricing and sales: Three versions are available, with the 256GB version priced at 19,999 RMB, the 512GB version at 21,999 RMB, and the 1TB version at 23,999 RMB. Pre-orders began on September 7th, with official sales on September 20th at 10:08, and a folding keyboard is available. As of September 11th, the official website had over 5 million pre-orders.

Commentary: 24H2 brands continue to release new phones and innovative models, accelerating market penetration. According to IDC data, the shipment volume of foldable devices in Q1 2024 reached 18.57 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 83%. In Q2 2024, shipments reached 25.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10466% (likely refers to 10.466%). Cumulative shipments in H1 2024 reached 44.27 million, a 95% year-on-year increase. Huawei's foldable phone shipments in Q1 and Q2 2024 were 8.19 million and 10.72 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growths of 223% and 98%. Cumulative shipments in H1 2024 reached 18.9 million units, a 138% year-on-year increase, accounting for 43% of the market share. Huawei maintained high growth and continuously increased its brand share even with limited new phone releases in the first half of the year.

In 2023, the total shipment of foldable devices in China reached 70.07 million units, with Huawei shipping 26.18 million units, accounting for roughly 37% of the market share (Note: The original text wrote 3737%, which is likely a typo, corrected to 37%). There has been significant growth in hardware components, particularly hinges and flexible screens, which are the main cost drivers for three-foldable phone (foldable smartphone) costs. Hardware development: In Mainland China, the market share of foldable OLED panels is continuously expanding, playing a protective role. The cost of UTG glass is rapidly decreasing. To meet the needs of ultra-thin devices, batteries that are small in volume yet large in capacity are continuously being upgraded. Hinges and folding structures, as well as fingerprint buttons needed for achieving ultra-slender body designs in conjunction with the device, are increasingly matured into applications on foldable smartphone new models. The technology in all hardware segments is continuously improving, and the cost is persistently decreasing.

With the transition of folding smartphone component supply from a high level of customization towards standardization and modular supply models, product manufacturing processes are streamlined, production efficiency and yield rates increase, potentially leading to economies of scale. This could effectively lower the overall manufacturing cost of foldable smartphones and accelerate industry adoption.

We remain optimistic about the folding screen sector, as continuous innovation within this niche field shows a clear ability to deliver performance. Subsequent attention should be given to competitor models and sales figures.

Hardware aspects: Compared to straight-screen (non-foldable) phones, the hinge and flexible screen are the primary incremental costs for foldable smartphone performance and BOM (Bill of Materials).

Investment Recommendations: Continue to favor the folding screen segment.

Key Hardware Suppliers to Monitor:

Hinges and axes (Associated listed companies in China): Dongmu Shares Co., Ltd (东睦股份)
OLED Screens, UTG Glass, OCA Optical Adhesives, etc. (OLED Companies, Glass Manufacturers, Optical Glue Suppliers)

Risk Warnings: