荷兰国际关系研究所-中国在冰岛和格陵兰的北极战略（英文）-2020.6-46页_5mb

Summary of "Presence before power: China's Arctic strategy in Iceland and Greenland"

Core Content

This report by the Clingendael Institute analyzes China's growing presence in the Arctic, focusing on its strategic engagement with Iceland and Greenland. It explores the long-term motivations behind China's Arctic strategy, its implications for Arctic governance, and how Europe and the Netherlands should respond to this development.

Main Viewpoints

• China's Arctic Strategy: China is not seeking to dominate the Arctic but to build a significant geostrategic presence to translate it into power if necessary.
• Strategic Importance: The Arctic is seen as a vital area for China's maritime and geopolitical ambitions, especially with the potential opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) due to climate change.
• Geopolitical Context: The Arctic has evolved from a militarized zone to a platform for international cooperation, with China using scientific and economic engagement to assert its influence.
• Iceland and Greenland as Focal Points: These two countries are central to China's Arctic strategy due to their strategic location, natural resources, and economic vulnerabilities.
• European Response: The report suggests that Europe should adopt a multi-layered approach to engage with China in the Arctic, including strategic, economic, and diplomatic efforts.

Key Information

1. China's Arctic Engagement

• Historical Roots: China's engagement with the Arctic dates back to the early 20th century, with participation in the First International Polar Year (1882) and signing the Spitsbergen Treaty (1925).
• Scientific and Economic Expansion: China's Arctic activities have expanded over time, from scientific research to commercial ventures, including the development of the Northern Sea Route.
• Arctic Council Involvement: China became a permanent observer in 2013, which marked a significant step in its integration into Arctic governance.

2. The Arctic as a Maritime Strategy

• Northern Sea Route (NSR): The NSR is a key component of China's maritime strategy, offering a shorter and potentially ice-free shipping route between Asia and Europe.
• Commercial and Geopolitical Benefits: The NSR could reduce shipping distances and times, enhancing China's economic and geopolitical influence.
• Infrastructure Development: China is involved in major infrastructure projects in the Russian Arctic, including LNG projects and port development.

3. Iceland: A Strategic Partner

• Economic Vulnerability: Iceland's economic fragility and failed EU membership bid in 2013 led to increased Chinese investment.
• Free Trade Agreement: Iceland signed the first free trade agreement with China in 2013, making it a key partner for Chinese trade and investment.
• Diplomatic and Scientific Engagement: China has invested heavily in Iceland, including the construction of its largest embassy in the country, and is active in scientific cooperation.

4. Greenland: A Resource and Strategic Hub

• Autonomy and Investment: Greenland's increasing autonomy and economic needs have made it an attractive destination for Chinese investment.
• Resource Potential: Greenland is rich in rare earth metals, minerals, and other resources, making it a strategic interest for China.
• Strategic Concerns: The US has also increased its involvement in Greenland, leading to concerns about China's influence and the potential for Arctic Connect, a project involving Huawei Marine.

5. EU and Dutch Strategy

• EU Arctic Policy: The EU needs to develop a more pronounced Arctic policy to counterbalance China's growing presence.
• Strategic Adjustments: The EU should adjust its raw materials and connectivity policies, considering the implications of China's influence in the region.
• Diplomatic Engagement: The Netherlands should strengthen diplomatic ties with Iceland and Greenland, as well as engage with other Arctic states and reconsider its stance on Russia.

Conclusion

China's Arctic strategy is a long-term geopolitical move, not a sudden threat. It is based on a combination of scientific, economic, and strategic interests, with Iceland and Greenland playing a key role. The report emphasizes that China's presence in the Arctic is not about domination but about securing a strategic foothold. Europe, and particularly the Netherlands, must respond with a comprehensive and proactive approach to ensure its interests are protected in the region.