世界银行-尼泊尔发展更新_2025年4月_利用韧性和实施改革促进经济增长（英）-2025.4_35页_10mb

Nepal Development Update Summary

Executive Summary

• Nepal's economy is projected to grow at 4.5% in FY25, up from 3.9%, driven primarily by the services sector.
• Headline inflation moderated to an average of 5% in H1FY25, down from 6.5%, influenced by lower global prices and domestic policies.
• The fiscal deficit narrowed significantly to near balance, while public debt remains sustainable but is projected to increase slightly to 43.4% of GDP by FY27.
• The recent acceleration in growth faces risks from external factors like lower remittances and tourism, as well as domestic vulnerabilities in the financial sector and fiscal implementation.

Recent Economic Developments

• Real Sector: GDP growth surged to 4.9% YoY in H1FY25, supported by agriculture and industrial expansion. Tourism faced disruptions due to airport upgrades.
• External Sector: The current account surplus narrowed to 2.4% of GDP, partly due to declining remittances. Trade conditions improved with lower petroleum imports.
• Monetary and Financial Sector: The central bank adopted an accommodative policy, cutting the policy rate. However, banks accumulated excess liquidity, and loan-loss provisions rose, worsening asset quality.
• Fiscal Sector: Revenues outpaced spending, leading to a deficit reduction. Grants declined due to delays in disbursements, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Outlook, Risks, and Challenges

• Growth Outlook: Real GDP is expected to average 5.4% annually in FY26-27, with construction and electricity sectors leading expansion. Inflation is projected to decline further.
• External Risks: A slowdown in partner countries could dampen remittances and tourism. Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions threaten commodity prices and growth.
• Domestic Risks: Financial sector stability faces risks from deteriorating asset quality. Implementation challenges for reforms, including the Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy, could hinder progress. Nepal's presence on the FATF Grey List remains a significant vulnerability to capital flows.
• Key Challenges: Delays in critical reforms, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and weak enforcement undermine policy consistency and long-term growth.

Conclusion

Nepal's economy is set for moderate expansion over the medium term, supported by fiscal consolidation and monetary easing. However, risks from external vulnerabilities and domestic challenges necessitate swift reforms to ensure sustainable growth and reduce exposure to global economic shocks.