2013年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Turkmenistan_in_Transition_12页_134kb

Summary of "Turkmenistan in transition: A window for EU engagement?"

Core Content

This document analyses the political and economic changes in Turkmenistan following the death of President Saparmurat Niyazov in December 2006 and evaluates the potential for increased European Union (EU) engagement with the country.

Main Views

• Political Transition: Niyazov's death led to a sudden and unprepared succession, resulting in a "coup d'état" in the immediate aftermath. The new regime is characterized by a "junta" of security officials from different regions and clans.
• Governance Reforms: There is a consensus among the political elite for a more balanced and rational system of governance, with reforms aimed at restoring social cohesion and reversing Niyazov's harmful policies.
• Economic Reforms: The government is considering a cautious programme of controlled liberalisation, including increased access to the internet, foreign travel, and foreign investment, while maintaining the dominance of ethnic Turkmen.
• Energy Sector: The energy sector is central to Turkmenistan's economy and politics. The government may seek to diversify gas export routes, particularly to the EU, but faces significant obstacles due to existing Russian dominance and lack of infrastructure.
• Human Rights and International Engagement: The EU may focus on human rights improvements, but the extent of the new regime's commitment is unclear. Turkmenistan's political culture and lack of international allies suggest limited pressure for reform.

Key Information

Domestic Political Landscape

• Sultanistic Regime: Niyazov's rule was based on a mix of fear, rewards, and a cult of personality, which helped maintain social integration and political control.
• Constitutional Framework: The Turkmen State Constitution is relatively liberal, but it has been largely ignored in practice. The Khalk Maslahaty (People's Council) functions as a ceremonial body.
• Transition Process: The transition was abrupt and marked by the arrest of the constitutionally designated successor and the appointment of Berdymuhammedov as acting president.
• Elite Dynamics: The new regime is likely to be shaped by tribal and regional elites. The State Security Council, led by General Akmurad Rejepov, has significant influence over leadership succession.
• Social Reforms: Berdymuhammedov has prioritized social cohesion, including restoring state pensions, maintaining subsidies, and implementing education reforms.
• Human Rights Concerns: Despite some gestures towards international engagement (e.g., removing Niyazov's image from currency and state oaths), there are ongoing concerns about human rights abuses and the treatment of political prisoners.

Energy Sector

• Gas Exports: Turkmenistan's gas reserves are of strategic importance to the EU, especially due to concerns about Russian supply reliability.
• Russian Dominance: Gazprom holds a 25-year supply contract and controls the existing pipeline infrastructure, making it unlikely that Turkmenistan will divert significant gas exports to the EU in the short term.
• Pipeline Projects: The BTE (Bakut-Btilisi-Erzerum) pipeline and the LBL (Livanov-Barinova-Lam) offshore fields represent potential opportunities for EU engagement, though they are not yet fully realized.
• Energy Bureaucracy: The energy sector experienced significant upheaval under Niyazov, with the purging of senior officials and the abolition of the Competent Body. This has created bottlenecks and reduced the capacity for effective governance and foreign engagement.
• Reforms in the Energy Sector: Berdymuhammedov has reconstituted the energy bureaucracy, including the creation of a new State Agency for management of hydrocarbon resources, to facilitate foreign investment.

EU Engagement Opportunities

• Long-Term Potential: The EU's principal opportunity to engage with Turkmenistan lies in the long-term, with a focus on technical governance, education, and health sectors.
• Non-Conditional Support: The EU should offer assistance without conditionalities to build trust and lay the foundation for more stable and cooperative relations.
• Security Cooperation: The EU could play a role in combating the illicit transit of narcotics through Turkmenistan, but this requires cooperation from Turkmen elites.
• Strategic Partners: With Russia and China not commenting on Turkmenistan's internal affairs, the EU may offer a more neutral and attractive alternative for strategic engagement.
• Challenges: The EU must be cautious, as the reforms may expose underlying issues such as uncontrolled corruption, regional tensions, and organized crime.

Conclusion

The death of Niyazov has created a window for EU engagement with Turkmenistan, but the opportunities are long-term and require careful, non-conditional support. The EU must navigate the complex political and economic landscape, focusing on governance, education, and health reforms, while also addressing security concerns and fostering trust with the new Turkmen leadership.