2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Arab_Regatta_–_a_half_year_report_card_4页_157kb

The Arab Regatta – A Half Year Report Card Summary

Core Content

The document "The Arab Regatta – a half year report card" by Michael Emerson, published in July 2011, provides an analysis of the political transformations in Arab states following the Arab Spring uprisings of 2010–2011. It draws a parallel between the Arab Spring and the 1990s Central and Eastern European transitions into the EU, using the metaphor of a regatta to illustrate the varying paths and outcomes of political change across the region.

Regime Typology and Outcomes

The author outlines a framework to categorize the political evolution of Arab states into seven main regime types:

1. Status quo maintained: Countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the Emirates have attempted to preserve their current systems, primarily through economic means such as oil subsidies.
2. Progressive constitutional reform: Morocco, Jordan, and Oman have pledged political reforms aimed at constitutionalizing their monarchies, though the implementation remains uncertain.
3. Uprising against the regime, leading to:
   • Moderate protests, no regime overthrow, possibly moving to status quo or reform (3.a)
   • Violent repression, no regime overthrow, possibly moving to status quo or reform (3.b)
   • Civil war or tribal/sectarian conflict, resulting in either regime survival or overthrow (3.c)
   • Regime change, which may result in:
     • Power vacuum (d.i)
     • Clean break with new democratic constitution (d.ii)
     • Renewed corrupt authoritarianism (d.iii)
     • Military regime (d.iv)
     • Radical Islamist state (d.v)
     • Failed state (d.vi)
     • Protectorate regime with external presence (d.vii)

Key Outcomes in Specific Countries

• Tunisia and Egypt: Both have experienced non-violent uprisings leading to regime change. Tunisia faces a power vacuum and is preparing for elections, while Egypt is under military control, possibly leading to a military regime.
• Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain: These countries have seen violent repression and civil war, with Libya and Yemen experiencing external military intervention.
• Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq: These states have had relatively subdued reactions due to past experiences of conflict, but are influenced by developments in Syria.
• Palestinian territories: Ongoing efforts for a new unity government and a push for statehood are highlighted, with regional changes such as Egypt opening its border with Gaza.

Comparative Insights

The document draws comparisons with other regions, including Latin America, Southeast Asia, and the former Soviet Union, to highlight the long-term and often unpredictable nature of political transitions. It notes that while the Arab Spring is comparable in terms of cross-border revolutionary impact, it differs in historical and cultural context. The mechanisms of authoritarianism, however, show a degree of universality.

Summary Scorecard

• 4 states seek to maintain the status quo.
• 3 states pursue moderate political reform.
• 2 states have achieved regime change and aim for a clean constitutional break.
• 4 states have experienced violent repression or civil war, with 2 involving external military intervention.
• 3 states are fragile but relatively quiet after moderate protests.
• 1 state is pushing for statehood.

Conclusion

The Arab Spring has set in motion a complex and uncertain political evolution across the Arab world. The document suggests that the future of these states will depend on how they navigate the challenges of reform, repression, and external influence, with many possible outcomes ranging from democratic transformation to failed states. The analysis serves as a benchmark for future updates and understanding of the region's political dynamics.

About CEPS

The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), founded in 1983, is a leading European think tank. It provides policy-oriented research and analysis, maintaining academic independence and acting as a forum for European policy discussions. CEPS is known for its multidisciplinary research team and extensive network of partner institutes, supporting its mission to offer authoritative policy insights.