英文_BIS_德菲英引力_比特币_以太币和稳定币跨境流动的实证分析_39页_1mb

BIS Working Paper Summary: DeFiying Gravity? An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Border Bitcoin, Ether and Stablecoin Flows

1. Key Findings

• Volume and Trends: Global cross-border crypto flows peaked at ~$2.6 trillion in 2021, with stablecoins accounting for nearly half the volume. They rebounded to ~$1.8 trillion in 2023 and surged again by 2024.
• Geographical Shifts: Crypto activity shifted from China to major emerging markets (e.g., India, Indonesia, Türkiye) amid tighter regulations in China. The U.S. and U.K. remain key nodes, but network density is lower than traditional banking.
• Drivers:
  • Speculative Motives: Higher global risk aversion (measured by VIX) reduces flows; tighter global funding conditions (e.g., Fed funds rate hikes) correlate with lower activity.
  • Transactional Motives: High inflation and Traditional remittance costs drive crypto adoption for cross-border payments. Stablecoins and low-value BTC transactions act as substitutes for remittances.
  • Decentralization: Cryptography defies traditional frictions like distance and borders, yet CFMs may be ineffective (despite some circumvention evidence).
• Policy Implications: Crypto networks may bypass traditional capital controls, raising concerns about systemic risks and the need for further policy study.

2. Methodology

• Gravity Model: Analyzed drivers (e.g., distance, global funding conditions) using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) to account for heteroskedasticity.
• Data Features: Novel bilateral cross-country data for BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC (2017–2024). Flows were approximated using exchange and app usage data.

3. Policy Relevance

• Capital flow management measures (CFMs) have minimal or unintended effects on crypto flows, suggesting limited policy efficacy.
• Crypto assets integrate increasingly with mainstream finance, necessitating deeper analysis of systemic risks, financial inclusion, and stability implications.

4. Conclusion

• Crypto assets serve diverse functions (speculation, cross-border payments) and challenge traditional finance assumptions. Future research must explore systemic risks and policy responses in light of growing crypto integration.