2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Costs_and_Benefits_of_RES_in_Europe_up_to_2030_13页_2mb

报告摘要

DIA-CORE POLICY BRIEF: Costs and Benefits of RES in Europe up to 2030

Core Content

This DIA-CORE Policy Brief evaluates the costs and benefits of increasing renewable energy (RES) deployment in the European Union up to 2030, focusing on system-related, distributional, and macro-economic impacts. It highlights the importance of cooperation and policy harmonisation to achieve the EU-wide RES target of 27% by 2030 and explores the feasibility of higher targets, such as 30%, with the potential for greater benefits.

Main Findings

1. Costs and Benefits of RES by 2030

System-related benefits include avoided fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emissions, which vary significantly across Member States.
System-related costs, particularly capital expenditures, also vary, with some countries facing a substantial share of GDP.
The EU-wide binding RES target of 27% by 2030 is considered financially bearable, but a clear concept for effort sharing among Member States is needed.
Higher RES targets (e.g., 30%) could lead to significant increases in system-related benefits, including greater fossil fuel avoidance and improved trade balance due to reduced fossil fuel imports.

2. Impact of Non-Economic Barriers

The removal of non-economic barriers and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make achieving a 30% RES target much easier.
These barriers currently limit the potential of RES deployment, especially in countries with less developed infrastructure or policy frameworks.

3. Regional Variations

Eastern European and Baltic states face higher support expenditures but also benefit more from avoided fossil fuel costs and CO₂ emission savings.
Countries already close to their RES targets do not experience significant increases in costs or benefits.
The EU average for support expenditures is around 0.2% of GDP, while capital expenditures are 0.54% of GDP on average.

4. Cost-Benefit Categories

Support expenditures: Vary across Member States, with Latvia requiring up to 0.8% of GDP.
Additional generation costs: Remain relatively low, averaging 0.04% of EU GDP.
Capital expenditures: Show a wide range, with some countries like Latvia and Bulgaria requiring up to 1.6% of GDP.
Benefits from avoided fossil fuels: Range from 0.26% of EU GDP on average, with Finland, Sweden, and Latvia benefiting the most.
Benefits from avoided CO₂ emissions: Are generally smaller in scale, with the EU average at 0.02% of GDP.

5. Policy Scenarios and Impacts

The "Strengthened National Policies (SNP)" scenario assumes continuation of current national RES targets and support schemes, leading to moderate system costs.
The quota system scenarios (e.g., QUO-27 and QUO-30) suggest lower capital and generation costs but higher support expenditures.
A 30% RES target would require additional investment and increased support costs, but would also yield greater benefits in terms of fossil fuel savings and climate protection.
The baseline scenario assumes a gradual phase-out of RES support after 2020, leading to a RES share of 21.1% in 2030.

6. Macro-Economic and Energy Security Impacts

Fuel cost savings from conventional plants are sufficient to finance support expenditures for new RES installations.
A higher RES target would improve Europe's trade balance by reducing fossil fuel imports.
Energy security is enhanced through increased domestic RES production, reducing reliance on imported fuels.

Key Recommendations

Clear effort sharing mechanisms across Member States are essential to ensure fair cost distribution and mutual benefit.
Harmonised EU-wide support schemes can lead to more efficient RES deployment and lower system costs.
Removing non-economic barriers is crucial to increase RES deployment and reduce the cost burden.
Energy efficiency measures should be integrated into RES policy to enhance the feasibility of higher RES targets.

Conclusion

The 27% RES target by 2030 is feasible but requires policy coordination and effort sharing. Higher targets (e.g., 30%) offer greater benefits in terms of environmental and economic outcomes, especially for Eastern European and Baltic states. A systematic and cooperative approach is necessary to ensure that the costs of RES deployment are balanced with the associated benefits. The Green-X model provides a valuable tool for assessing the economic and environmental impacts of RES deployment, highlighting the need for policy reforms and cooperation to achieve a sustainable energy future.