IMF-全球性别差距何时缩小？（英）-2023.9-24页_1mb

Summary of 'When Will Global Gender Gaps Close?'

This paper examines the dynamics of global gender gaps in labor force participation using a Markov chain model based on data from 1991 to 2021. The key findings are:

• Gender gaps have narrowed slowly, with an average reduction of about 1.03% per year between 1991 and 2021.
• Markov chain analysis shows that current policies lead to slow convergence; gaps would take 197 to 430 years to stabilize within 1% of long-run values, with long-run gaps remaining substantial for many countries.
• In the long run, a large share of countries will have enduring gaps, such as median gaps around 10 percentage points, indicating a non-convergence to full equality.
• Incorporating development factors via bivariate chains slightly increases long-run gaps, supporting a shift away from deterministic U-shaped transitions.
• The analysis underscores the need for stronger, systematic policies to address gender gaps across the distribution to achieve faster convergence and human resource utilization.

Recommendations include enhancing policy interventions and monitoring progress beyond large gaps to foster inclusive growth.