20170207-法国巴黎银行-LATAM_MACROECONOMIC_OUTLOOK__CONTENTS_80页_2mb

报告摘要

LATAM CHARTBOOK Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a macroeconomic outlook for Latin America in February 2017, focusing on key economic indicators and policy developments across major countries including Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile, as well as a summary of Argentina's economic conditions. The analysis is conducted by BNP Paribas and highlights the region's economic performance, inflation trends, exchange rates, and fiscal and monetary policy outlooks.

Main Countries Analysis

Brazil: From Vicious to Virtuous Cycle

Growth: Expected to recover in 2017 and gain traction in 2018, with a forecast of 1.0% growth in 2017 and 3.0% in 2018.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to fall below the target range, with end-2017 inflation at 4.0% and 2018 at 4.5%.
Interest Rates: The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) is expected to cut the policy rate to single-digit levels by end-2017, with a forecast of 8.00% in 2017 and 8.00% in 2018.
Confidence: Consumer and business confidence is key to recovery.
Credit: Credit growth from public sector banks has been rapid and needs to moderate.
Non-Performing Loans: Non-performing loans have increased, indicating financial stress.
Unemployment: The unemployment rate has risen from record lows, with gradual improvement expected.
Structural Reforms: Needed to improve the quality of education, infrastructure, and reduce the tax burden.
PPI: The government is implementing privatization and concessions to support long-term growth.

Mexico: Aftershocks

Growth: Expected to slow to a halt in 2017, with a forecast of 0.0% growth and 1.5% in 2018.
Inflation: Inflation is projected to rise to 6.0% by end-2017, driven by currency depreciation and higher gasoline prices.
Monetary Policy: Banxico is expected to maintain a tighter monetary stance, with a policy rate forecast of 8.00% in 2017.
Current Account: The oil trade balance has deteriorated, while non-oil balance has improved.
FDI: FDI has been relatively resilient, but other investment flows are volatile.
Political Climate: Presidential elections in 2018 may impact policy continuity and reforms.
Exchange Rate: The peso has weakened in real terms against the USD and EM basket.

Colombia: Inflation Risks on the Rise

Growth: Expected to remain stable, with a forecast of 2.0% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above target, with a forecast of 5.0% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018.
FDI: Capital inflows have slowed, especially in oil and mining sectors.
Current Account: FDI is not sufficient to fully finance the current account gap.
Tax Reforms: Another tax reform is likely needed to close the revenue gap.
Fiscal Conditions: The fiscal balance is expected to improve slightly over time.

Chile: Modest Outlook

Growth: Growth is expected to remain below potential, with a forecast of 2.0% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018.
Inflation: Inflation has moderated and is expected to stay within the 2-4% tolerance range.
Exchange Rate: The peso has weakened slightly, with forecasts of 665 in 2017 and 675 in 2018.
Confidence: Further confidence improvement is needed to support growth.
Policy Space: No additional room for policy stimulus; recent improvements are welcome.

Argentina: Making Progress

Growth: Argentina is expected to recover from recession, with a forecast of 3.5% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018.
Inflation: The inflation peak is behind, with a forecast of 12.0% in 2018.
Interest Rates: The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) is expected to lower the policy rate to 11.00% by end-2018.
Political Dynamics: Political alliances with the opposition are necessary to secure congressional approval for reforms.
Exchange Rate: The peso is expected to weaken further, with a forecast of 20.60 by end-2018.

Key Economic Indicators

Real GDP Growth

Latin America: -0.8% (2016), 1.1% (2017), 2.5% (2018)
Brazil: -3.5% (2016), 1.0% (2017), 3.0% (2018)
Mexico: 2.2% (2016), 0.0% (2017), 1.5% (2018)
Colombia: 1.8% (2016), 2.0% (2017), 2.5% (2018)
Argentina: -2.3% (2016), 3.5% (2017), 3.5% (2018)

Inflation (CPI, year-end)

Latin America: 9.0% (2016), 6.3% (2017), 4.9% (2018)
Brazil: 6.3% (2016), 4.0% (2017), 4.5% (2018)
Mexico: 3.4% (2016), 6.0% (2017), 3.5% (2018)
Colombia: 5.7% (2016), 5.0% (2017), 3.5% (2018)
Argentina: 39.0% (2016), 18.0% (2017), 12.0% (2018)

Exchange Rates (Domestic Currency/USD, year-end)

Brazil: 3.26 (2016), 3.00 (2017), 3.25 (2018)
Chile: 670 (2016), 665 (2017), 675 (2018)
Colombia: 3002 (2016), 3000 (2017), 3150 (2018)
Mexico: 20.73 (2016), 19.75 (2017), 19.75 (2018)
Argentina: 15.88 (2016), 17.50 (2017), 20.60 (2018)

Current Account (% of GDP)

Latin America: -2.3% (2016), -2.3% (2017), -2.7% (2018)
Brazil: -1.1% (2016), -1.4% (2017), -2.1% (2018)
Mexico: -2.9% (2016), -2.5% (2017), -3.0% (2018)
Colombia: -5.5% (2016), -4.6% (2017), -4.1% (2018)
Argentina: -3.0% (2016), -3.3% (2017), -3.5% (2018)

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

Latin America: -6.1% (2016), -6.2% (2017), -4.9% (2018)
Brazil: -9.6% (2016), -9.3% (2017), -7.4% (2018)
Mexico: -3.0% (2016), -3.8% (2017), -3.0% (2018)
Colombia: -4.0% (2016), -3.4% (2017), -2.7% (2018)
Argentina: -4.5% (2016), -5.1% (2017), -4.5% (2018)

Interest Rates (Benchmark, year-end)

Brazil: 13.75% (2016), 8.00% (2017), 8.00% (2018)
Mexico: 5.75% (2016), 8.00% (2017), 5.75% (2018)
Colombia: 7.50% (2016), 5.75% (2017), 4.75% (2018)
Chile: 3.50% (2016), 3.00% (2017), 4.00% (2018)
Argentina: 24.75% (2016), 17.00% (2017), 11.00% (2018)

Key Insights and Trends

Global Monetary Policy: Rates are rising in the US, while they are falling in the Eurozone and Japan.
Commodity Exposure: Latin American economies are highly exposed to commodities, with varying degrees across countries.
Exchange Rates: A stronger USD is generally associated with weaker Latin American currencies.
Inflation: Most countries are expected to see inflation drift toward target levels, although some, like Mexico and Argentina, face challenges.
Policy Rates: Brazil and Mexico are expected to lower their policy rates, while Argentina is projected to reduce them significantly.
Structural Reforms: Needed in all countries to improve economic efficiency and sustainability.
Political Factors: Political stability and coalition dynamics are crucial for policy implementation and economic recovery.
FDI and Investment: FDI is important for financing current account deficits, but investment has slowed in some countries.
Fiscal Challenges: Most countries face high fiscal deficits and need to improve fiscal sustainability.
Confidence and Business Environment: Improving business confidence and reducing bureaucratic hurdles are essential for economic growth.